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NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 best at Texas in last three seasons

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Last year’s championship finale was as predictable as any NASCAR race can be.

Seven of the top-10 finishers qualified among the top 10. Eight of them finished among the top 10 in both stages and only one – Ryan Newman in 10th – failed to finish that well at the two breaks.

The top-three finishers all led significant portions of the race with Martin Truex Jr. pacing the field four times for 78 laps, Kyle Busch leading four times for 43 laps and Kyle Larson up front four times for 145 laps.

For the most part, these were the same drivers who were fast in practice, so this week’s NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster should be heavily influenced by the drivers with the best 10-lap averages.

Qualifying will also be important, but there is no reason to automatically discount a driver who starts outside the top 10. Last year, Chase Elliott advance to fifth from 18th on the grid while Joey Logano finished sixth after starting 19th.

1. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 3.00) Playoff
Harvick has been as close to perfect as possible at Miami. Since the track went to its current configuration in 2003, Harvick has missed the top 10 only once (2007). In the 10 races since then, he has seven top fives, including the last four. He won the championship on the strength of his 2014 victory and is one of the best bets to do so again.

1. Kyle Busch  (three-year average: 3.00) Playoff
There are many signs pointing to this week being a two-man battle between Harvick and Busch. Las Vegas odds makers have had them as co-favorites most of the week at 2/1, they’ve dominated the 1.5-mile tracks with Harvick winning four times and Busch three. Their three-year average at Homestead are identical. Unless something happens to slow one of them down, the race and championship will come down to these two. 

3. Kyle Larson (three-year average: 3.33) Non-Playoff
It is unfortunate that Larson failed to make the Championship 4 because he will be part of the battle for the win this weekend. He enters with three consecutive top fives including a second in 2016 and a third last year. In four years of NASCAR’s current knockout format, a non-playoff driver has never won this race, so history could be made this week.

4. Joey Logano (three-year average: 4.67) Playoff
Logano is this week’s dark horse to win the championship. He has not been nearly as dominant on 1.5-milers as Harvick, Busch or Truex but he does have a couple of things in his favor. 1) He has had the luxury of preparing for Miami for three weeks since winning at Martinsville and 2) he has not finished worse than sixth in his last three starts at Miami. 

5. Matt Kenseth (three-year average: 7.33) Non-Playoff
It has been easy to disregard Kenseth’s statistics in 2018. His most recent runs on a given track were with Joe Gibbs Racing and the No. 6 at Roush Fenway Racing has struggled with both him and Trevor Bayne behind the wheel. Last week’s seventh-place finish at Phoenix changed that. Now that he knows how to get to the top 10, his Miami record of five consecutive results of eighth or better is suddenly meaningful.

MORE: Rotoworld Fantasy Power Rankings

6. Chase Elliott (three-year average: 8.00 in two starts) Non-Playoff
There is a old adage in racing that states drivers must first lose races in order to win them. The same is true of championships – and under NASCAR’s current rules, that also applies to simply making the Championship 4. Elliott has been eliminated in the Round of 8 in the past two seasons. Elliott knows he has been one of the strongest performers during the playoffs and if not for the poor start that Chevrolet endured at the beginning of the season, he might be one of the challengers if he had started winning earlier in the year. 

7. Denny Hamlin (three-year average: 9.33) Non-Playoff
Hamlin will be on most fantasy radars because of his five race top-10 streak at Miami. He has not earned a top five there since 2013, but that year he won his second race on this track. His first came in 2009, so there is still some hope that he will keep his streak of winning every year since he was a rookie in 2006 alive.

8. Jamie McMurray (three-year average: 10.33) Non-Playoff
McMurray is another driver who would like to close the season on a high note. He has not announced his plans for 2019, but he knows he will not be with Chip Ganassi Racing next year and with most of the major rides spoken for, he may not have another opportunity to win. Two of his last four attempts on this track ended in fifth-place finishes. The other two were a pair of 13ths. 

9. Austin Dillon (three-year average: 12.33) Non-Playoff
Dillon has come on strong in the last two weeks. His 10th at Texas and eighth at Phoenix is the first time this year that he has earned back-to-back top 10s. At Miami, he has a current streak of three top 15s without a top 10. With a little luck and some track position, he could close out the year with three consecutive strong runs.

9. Jimmie Johnson (three-year average: 12.33) Non-Playoff
Johnson has already shown what he will do for a win. It didn’t matter that he might miss the playoffs when he sailed into the final chicane at the Charlotte Roval and it won’t matter that the Championship 4 are battling for the Cup this week. If Johnson can sniff the lead, he is going to do everything he can to get to the checkers first. 

14. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 16.33) Playoff
Truex may have won last year, but he has not been overly impressive at Miami in recent years. That was his only top 10 in the past four seasons, which suggests he has his work cut out for him this week if he wants to beat Harvick and Busch.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Hamlin has won two of the last three poles at Miami. He will not be front-of-mind for most fantasy players this week and that could be a blessing in disguise. While most of the competition makes a safe pick like Harvick, Kyle Busch or Truex, someone willing to take a little risk could reap a huge benefit.

Segment Winners: Last year, the top-four finishers each swept the top five at the end of the stages. Meanwhile, there were only two drivers who earned stage points before falling out of the top 10 at the checkers (Clint Bowyer was 10th in Stage 1 before finishing 12th; Kurt Busch was seventh in Stage 1 and sixth in Stage 2 before losing two laps in the final segment and finishing 22nd). That suggests this week’s stage winners will come from among the drivers who impress the analysts most in practice.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 best at Phoenix in last three seasons

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ISM Raceway will look different this weekend than it did in the spring. Major capital improvements were implemented between this year’s two races, including the relocation of the start/finish line. While that could make a difference in who wins this week, the track itself has not been changed since it was reconfigured and repaved in 2011.

That alteration was substantial with the addition of a run-off area on what was formerly the backstretch. This week, it will be a wide part of the road near where the checkered flag waves. If there is a late-race restart, it could be exciting as three-, four- or even five-wide racing breaks out and the driver with the most momentum off Turn 4 will triumph.

At its core, ISM is still Phoenix International Raceway, however – a track that rewards consistency and rhythm. Chose this week’s NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster from among the drivers who have excelled there in the past.

1. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 3.40) Playoff
Harvick’s last trip to Phoenix came after he was hit with a penalty for an illegal back window at Las Vegas in March. Undaunted, he dominated and won his seventh race there in his last 12 attempts and there is no reason to think this week will be any different.

2. Kyle Busch (three-year average: 3.60) Playoff
Busch has not won at Phoenix since his rookie season of 2005, but he has finished outside the top five only one time in his last six attempts. With a substantial points lead over the cutoff line and the promise that at least two playoff contenders will advance on points, he will likely settle for a solid performance without risking much for the win. 

3. Chase Elliott (three-year average: 6.80) Playoff
Last year Elliott held the lead late at Phoenix before he was overhauled by Matt Kenseth. He has learned a lot since then and will not be as easy to pass if he is in a position to win and advance to the championship four. In five starts on this track, he has never finished worse than 12th.

4. Erik Jones (three-year average: 7.00 in three starts) Non-Playoff
Since joining the Cup series last year, Jones has swept the top 10 at Phoenix. He finished fourth in this race last year and is coming off a fourth-place finish at Texas. He was also fourth the last time the series visited a 1-mile track at Dover. There are a lot of “fours” in his record this week, so fantasy players can expect him to finish near there again. 

5. Alex Bowman (three-year average: 9.50 in two starts) Non-Playoff
Bowman’s best Phoenix result before joining Hendrick Motorsports was a 30th earned in 2015. In fall 2016, he qualified Dale Earnhardt Jr.‘s No. 88 on the pole and finished sixth. The feel of that car must have stuck with him because he qualified fourth there in the spring and finished 13th.

MORE: Rotoworld Fantasy Power Rankings

6. Daniel Suarez (three-year average: 11.00 in three starts) Non-Playoff
It is official that Suarez will give up his ride to Martin Truex Jr. in 2019 and that puts some pressure on the sophomore driver to perform this week. Luckily for him, this is a track that has been mostly kind since he joined Cup. Suarez’s three attempts at Phoenix netted two of his 21 career top 10s. His worst result of 18th came in this race last year. 

7. Denny Hamlin (three-year average: 11.80) Non-Playoff
Hamlin may well be the best driver currently racing on minimally banked tracks. His three-year average at Phoenix is skewed by last year’s race when he was pinched in the wall by a determined Elliott. Without that, Hamlin would have a perfect record of top 10s and an average somewhere around sixth.  

8. Kurt Busch (three-year average: 13.40) Playoff
If one looks at the totality of Busch’s career with Stewart-Haas Racing at Phoenix, his numbers are much better than 13th. In nine attempts with that team, he has six top 10s. Unfortunately, two of the three times he missed that mark came last year and a pair of 20-something results have hurt his average. Busch has consistently earned top 10s on every track type this year and should easily record another. 

9. Aric Almirola (three-year average: 13.60) Playoff
While he has only three top 10s during his career at Phoenix, this has still been one of his better tracks with a career average finish of 18.1 in 15 starts. That places the flat 1-miler fourth on his list. Equally impressive, he has finished on the lead lap in 12 of the last 13 races there. Almirola needs a win this week, but his best finish to date has been a seventh this spring.

10. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 14.60) Playoff
Before last fall, Truex had only one top five in 23 Phoenix attempts. He qualified fifth and finished third in that race. This spring, he started on the pole and finished fifth. He also has top fives in his last three New Hampshire races – which shows an affinity for the flat one-mile ovals. 

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Never underestimate the power of determination. Harvick is in the news for all the wrong reasons this week, but one need only flash back to the spring Phoenix race for an image of him tapping the back window in defiance of all the haters that came out after his Vegas penalty. Harvick has only one previous pole on this track from spring 2015 but he has started on one of the first five rows six times in his last eight attempts.

Segment Winners: Finishing first in the opening stages at Phoenix has not been a particularly good omen so far. Last spring, Joey Logano won Stage 1 (after scoring the pole) and finished 31st. Elliott won Stage 2 and finished 12th. Last fall, Kyle Larson started third and won Stage 1 before finishing 40th. Stage 2 winner Hamlin finished 35th with crash damage. This spring, Kyle Busch defied those odds by finishing second after winning Stage 1, but his brother Kurt Busch finished only 10th after winning Stage 2. Pick a top five qualified driver, but don’t use that same racer as your overall winner pick.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 best at Texas in last three seasons

Photo by Jerry Markland/Getty Images for Texas Motor Speedway
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The road to Miami runs through Texas.

The top six drivers this week in regard to three-year averages are all playoff eligible. Four of them have a better-than 10th-place average that is going to make it difficult to maximize this week’s NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster. Someone will stumble. The question is who.

The answer to that question is often found in practice and qualification on 1.5-milers. It is possible to find speed at the track, but most often it rides along with the car from the shop. Cars that roll off the hauler fast typically remain that way at Texas.

When a player is confused about who to place on their roster, they will want to look at the other 1.5-milers for confirmation. Five drivers (Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson) have earned at least seven top 10s in nine races on this track type in 2018.

Larson is the only driver not represented among the this week’s 10 best at Texas because of back-to-back accidents there last fall and this spring.

1. Joey Logano (three-year average: 4.20) Playoff
Drivers want to peak at the right time. Logano brings momentum from last week’s Martinsville win with him to Texas and that is great news for fantasy players who do not want to automatically rely on the Big 3. Logano is one of only two drivers (along with Harvick) who have swept the top 10 in the past three seasons. His worst result in that span of races was seventh last fall.

2. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 4.60) Playoff
Harvick enters the weekend with three consecutive top fives at Texas including a victory last fall. He has an active streak of eight straight top 10s; six of these were top fives. With Logano’s win last week and the possibility that another driver below him in points could win, Harvick actually needs this week’s victory as much as anyone. This spring, he won Stage 1 before finishing second in the race. 

3. Chase Elliott (three-year average: 7.40) Playoff
Elliott had not been good on 1.5-milers this year until his Kansas victory. He started the season with a 10th at Atlanta and had several results in the low teens, but that would not be good enough to make him an acceptable value among playoff eligible drivers this week in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game. It probably is not enough to advance him to the finale either. Elliott needs to win and if he does, he puts remarkable pressure on the Big 3 next week at Phoenix.

4. Kyle Busch (three-year average: 8.20) Playoff
Since 2012, Busch has been an all or nothing driver at Texas. He has finished in the top five eight times and worse than 10th on four occasions. Three of his strong runs ended in victory lane including this spring. He earned the most points that week with a second-place finish in Stage 1 and the Stage 2 win. Like Harvick, he needs to reestablish his dominance if he wants to concentrate on the championship run at Miami. 

5. Kurt Busch (three-year average: 11.00) Playoff
Nearly every week Busch shows up on this list, it is remarked how consistency is what earned the spot. Texas is no exception. He has not scored a top five since 2010, but six of his last eight attempts ended in top 10s. His other two results were a 14th in 2015 and a worst finish of 20th in fall 2016.

6. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 11.20) Playoff
Truex came into the spring Texas race with a six-race, top-10 streak. He was almost certain to add another until he fell victim to a blown tire. He crashed and finished 37th, but that is the only time in the last two seasons that he failed to crack the top 10 on a 1.5-mile track. After getting bumped out of the lead in Turn 4 of the last lap at Martinsville, he is highly motivated to win and advance to Miami in championship form. 

7. Jamie McMurray (three-year average: 12.00) Non-Playoff
Can McMurray be the best non-playoff driver this week? It seems unlikely given the season he has had and the struggles faced in his last full year with Chip Ganassi Racing, but he put the No. 1 car on fantasy owners’ radars with top 10s in two of his last three Texas starts and five of the last eight. If he performs well in practice, he deserves a spot in the garage so he can be evaluated in the first two stages.

7. Erik Jones (three-year average: 12.00 in three starts) Non-Playoff
Jones might be this week’s best value in most fantasy games. His first start at Texas came in a pre-rookie warmup in fall 2015; he finished 12th. He was 10th last fall and fourth this spring, showing a steady improvement that could end with him challenging for a win. Jones’ last attempt on a 1.5-mile track also ended in a fourth-place finish at Kansas this fall.

9. Ryan Blaney (three-year average: 12.80) Non-Playoff
One could easily vote a straight Team Penske ticket this week with Logano among the playoff eligible plus Brad Keselowski and Blaney among the non-playoff drivers. Blaney finished fifth this spring in his first Texas attempt with the organization. That comes on the heels of a sixth last fall and back-to-back 12th-place finishes in the two preceding races.

10. Brad Keselowski (three-year average: 15.20) Non-Playoff
If not for an accident this spring, Keselowski would probably have an average finish that placed him in or on the cusp of the top five. His previous four efforts netted an average of 10.75. The three races before that were all top fives. Keselowski has never won at Texas, but he’s come close with second-place finishes in 2012 and 2015 as well as a third in 2014.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: This is a good week to remember that the pole pick does not need to be a driver that is selected as a race pick. Kurt Busch has sat on the pole in the last two Texas races before slipping outside the top five at the checkers. He also won the pole in spring 2015 the second year he drove for Stewart-Haas Racing.

Segment Winners: It is difficult to discount the Big 3 this week. Select your segment winners from among Harvick, Busch, and Truex with an emphasis on the two who start closest to the front.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 best at Martinsville in last three seasons

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Martinsville has been considered one of the biggest wild cards in the playoffs. With major shakeups occurring already at Las Vegas, the Charlotte Roval and Talladega already, this race promises to be just another in what is becoming a long list of unpredictable races in the 2018 playoffs.

In the NASCAR America Fantasy Live game, two active drivers need to be playoff eligible and two must come from the remainder of the field. The playoff field has shrunk to eight drivers. Five of them are listed among those with the 10 best average finishes during the past three seasons, but if the chaotic races that have already been run have taught us anything, it is that no one is immune to having a bad race regardless of their stats.

Players need to maximize points. So far during the playoffs, the better strategy has been to have a playoff eligible driver in the garage because the negative impact of an early retirement among them has been greater. With so many strong contenders outside the playoff drivers, it is time to change that strategy and place a non-playoff contender in the garage in order to hedge one’s bets.

1. Kyle Busch (three-year average: 2.20) Playoff
Busch has struggled during the playoffs and might not automatically be considered one of the top choices each week. Short tracks are an entirely different story, however, because he has been almost perfect on them in the past two seasons. Busch has five wins in the last eight short track races. One of these came in last year’s fall Martinsville race after he bumped teammate Denny Hamlin out of the lead on the final lap.

2. Brad Keselowski (three-year average: 4.40) Non-Playoff
Contenders have won every playoff race this season. Keselowski has the potential to disrupt that because he enters the weekend with four top fives and a top 10 in the last five Martinsville races. Keselowski won last year’s spring race and finished second in fall 2016. Wait until practice is in the books before deciding to start him though. In five short track races this year, Keselowski has not yet cracked the top five. 

3. Matt Kenseth (three-year average: 9.25 in four starts) Non-Playoff
Is this the week Kenseth finally gets another top 10? Probably not, but Martinsville is the type of track that rewards driver skill to a greater degree than horsepower. In his 12 starts this season, Kenseth has earned three top 15s. In his last four at Martinsville, he’s never failed to crack that mark.

4. Martin Truex, Jr. (three-year average: 9.40) Playoff
From 2012-17 Truex failed to produce a single top five at Martinsville in 10 starts. He only had a couple of those in earlier seasons, so he was completely under the radar last fall on this track. He finished second – in no small part because the front of the field was cleared out by Busch and Hamlin in separate incidents in the closing laps. He followed that with another top five (fourth) this spring.

5. Jimmie Johnson (three-year average: 10.40) Non-Playoff
Every time it seems to be safe to select Johnson, either he or the team makes a mistake. His 22nd-place finish at Kansas was certainly disappointing, but it came on the heels of three top 10s in the previous four races. Even while he has struggled elsewhere, Johnson has been strong at Martinsville with one of his most recent wins coming in 2016. It would take some wild circumstances for him to earn a 10th victory on this track, but NASCAR is filled with event wilder stories.

6. Joey Logano (three-year average: 10.80) Playoff
Before he left Kansas last week, Logano noted that consistency will no longer be good enough to advance in the playoffs. He knows he is going to have to challenge for the win in the next three weeks. Unfortunately, that is not something he has done often at Martinsville. His best finish of second was earned in 2010 and he has only one top five in the last three seasons.

7. Clint Bowyer (three-year average: 12.80) Playoff
Bowyer’s three-season average can be a little misleading. He finished in the mid- to high-20s in both 2016 races, but he has been perfect in regard to top 10s since. Bowyer snapped a 190-race winless streak this spring at Martinsville and now counts this as one of his favorite tracks. He hasn’t scored a top five again on a short track, but he has swept the top 10 in 2018.

8. AJ Allmendinger (three-year average: 13.20) Non-Playoff
Allmendinger deserves a spot on the NASCAR Fantasy Live roster even if one choses to put him in the garage at the beginning of the weekend. There is something about this track that really suits his racing style. Perhaps it is the braking characteristics one must employ to get around the tight, flat corners. Whatever the reason, he has four top 10s in his last five starts at Martinsville and came within a position of winning in spring 2016.

9. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 13.40) Playoff
Martinsville has not always been kind to Harvick. From 2012 through spring 2017 he failed to crack the top five and had only a handful of top 10s (excluding the thumb). Last year he was elevated to fifth when a chaotic finish dropped Chase Elliott and Hamlin from the lead. This year he did not need any help to finish fifth for the second consecutive time.

9. Ryan Newman (three-year average: 13.40) Non-Playoff
Martinsville is exactly the type of track that suits Newman. It’s a bullring befitting a bulldog of his pedigree, and he earns top 10s occasionally by a sheer force of will. As his season comes to a close, however, and Newman starts to look toward 2019, he has been less consistent in recent weeks. That diminishes his appeal.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Rarely is there a clear-cut favorite to win the pole. Martinsville is different. One of the keys to Logano’s success on this track has been his ability to start up front. He has earned four poles in his last eight starts on this track and lined up on the outside of the front row on two other occasions.

Segment Winners: Drivers who start up front have the best opportunity to stay there on a tight, single-groove bullring like Martinsville. Expect Logano, Harvick and Kyle Busch to qualify on the first three rows this week and make your segment picks based on their performance in practice.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 Best at Kansas in last three seasons

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The Big 3 have not been as dominant during the playoffs as they were during the regular season. Then again, they haven’t needed to be with a massive bonus point advantage to ease their way through the first five races.

A quick glance at this week’s top 10 in terms of three-year averages reveals they are all once more at the top of the list. A case could be made for each of them to win this week’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Since only two playoff drivers can be active on a NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster plus one in the garage, this may be a good week to play it safe. After all, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have won all of the Kansas races in the past three seasons.

The competition has won four of the first five playoff races, however, and that opens up some great opportunities to differentiate one’s lineup from the others in the league. Joey Logano won back-to-back fall races in 2014/2015. His Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney have also been successful on this track in particular and 1.5-milers in general recently.

1. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 3.00) Playoff
The Big 3 may have lost some of their cache in recent weeks, but Harvick regained much of his at Talladega. Being able to separate from the field as they did, the Stewart-Haas crew served notice they would be a force with which to reckon and fantasy players cannot take that for granted. That dominant posture comes as NASCAR heads to a track where Harvick has two wins, a second and a third in his last five attempts.

2. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 5.80) Playoff
No one has been better at Kansas in the past two seasons than Truex. He won both races last year and finished second this spring. The playoffs have not gone according to plan for the No. 78 who still have the specter of Furniture Row Racing closing hanging over their head. Truex spent most of last week’s Talladega race in jeopardy of failing to advance to Round 3, but he was strong the last time the series visited a 1.5-miler at Vegas. Truex finished fifth in that race.

3. Kyle Busch (three-year average: 6.20) Playoff
In eight races on 1.5-mile tracks this year, Busch has been perfect in regard to top-10 finishes. He has a seven-race streak of top 10s at Kansas – so what could go wrong? Unfortunately, Busch’s last two Kansas races barely qualified as a top 10 with back-to-back 10th-place results. His last attempt on a 1.5-miler was a seventh at Las Vegas, so the likelihood is that he will miss the top five this week.

4. Kurt Busch (three-year average: 9.20) Playoff
If Busch is having any lingering issues with his teammates after being raced hard earlier this season, they seem to have dissipated at Talladega. On most track types in 2018 he has been the king of consistency, but the 1.5-milers have been a little less so. In eight races on them, he has finished outside the top 10 three times and has not yet cracked the top five with a best of sixth at Kentucky. 

5. Austin Dillon (three-year average: 11.80) Non-Playoff
What Dillon has lacked in flat out speed has been made up for in consistency at Kansas. In the past three seasons, he has a worst finish of 17th and best of sixth. That suggests that a finish this week in the low teens is the most likely result. It can make him a solid contender in some games, but in the NASCAR Fantasy Live contest one hopes for a top 10 from their selection. Dillon has only three in 11 Kansas starts.

6. Alex Bowman (three-year average: 12.50 in two starts) Playoff
In order to advance to Round 3, Bowman needs to win. He’s not alone, Keselowski, Blaney and Kyle Larson are basically in the same situation, but they have the advantage over Bowman of at least scoring top-two finishes on 1.5-mile tracks this year. Bowman has a few top-10s on this track type and that simply will not get the job done. 

7. Ryan Blaney (three-year average: 12.60) Playoff
The good news is this is one of Blaney’s best tracks – but is it good enough to give him an opportunity to win? He’s come close three times in the last two years and has more experience with each passing week. Blaney finished fifth in spring 2016 and swept the top five last year with a fourth and a third. He ran into trouble this spring when he crashed 20 laps short of the finish line.

8. Jimmie Johnson (three-year average: 15.00) Non-Playoff
No one knows when Jimmie Johnson will break his winless streak. It is going to be unexpected whenever it happens, but fantasy players who guess correctly are going to be able to make up significant ground on the competition. Johnson has won at Kansas recently. His spring 2015 win was part of a sweep of the top five that year. He finished fourth in 2016. Those numbers mean this might be a good week to gamble. 

9. Brad Keselowski (three-year average: 15.40) Playoff
One reason the Vegas race was so chaotic was because the playoff contenders were nervous about the upcoming Charlotte Roval. They pressed the envelope and came up empty on a several occasions. The four drivers below the cutoff line are in a similarly desperate situation, so this is likely to be a race marked by strategy gambles and bold moves on the race track. One would do well to remember that it was Keselowski who visited Victory Lane in Las Vegas – another 1.5-mile track.

10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (three-year average: 16.60) Non-Playoff
Stenhouse makes the list his week with a modest three-year average. He has never scored a top 10 at Kansas in 12 starts, but he’s come close with 11th-place finishes in his first attempt in 2013 and again in the last two spring races. If he practices and qualifies well, Stenhouse could be one of this week’s best sleepers who is likely to escape the attention of the competition. 

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: The Big 3 have been almost as dominant in qualifying as in race trim at Kansas. Harvick and Truex each won from the pole in the last two races on this track, so even if a player fails to make the right selection in time trials, the pole winner should be on one’s roster for the race. Blaney won the pole in this race last spring and finished fourth. That should put the Penske racers on the radar screen as well.

Segment Winners: Wait until Friday to make this selection. On the 1.5-mile tracks in particular, momentum is built in practice and carried through to qualification and the race. The dominant driver is most likely to come from the front row and if past races on this track are an indication, Harvick or Truex could sweep both stages and the overall victory.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.