playoff scenarios

Second round clinching scenarios for Cup playoffs

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While Sunday’s inaugural Bank of America Roval 400 (2 p.m. ET on NBC) is a big deal, the fact it serves as the elimination race in the first round of the Cup playoffs ramps up its importance.

The playoff field will be cut from 16 to 12 drivers for the second round.

The drivers who sit outside the top 12 are Clint Bowyer (-4 points), Jimmie Johnson (-6), Erik Jones (-21) and Denny Hamlin (-29).

Brad Keselowski (win), Kyle Busch (win) and Martin Truex Jr. (points) are the only drivers who have secured spots in round two.

Here are the clinching scenarios for the drivers who have not yet advanced to the second round.

  • Kevin Harvick – Harvick will clinch by starting Sunday’s race.
  • Joey Logano – If there is a new winner, Logano will clinch with 33 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), Logano would clinch with 30 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Logano would clinch with 31 points.
  • Aric Almirola – If there is a new winner, Almirola would clinch with 35 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex Jr., Harvick, Logano, Larson, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Dillon or Bowman), he would clinch on points with 32 Points.  If Blaney wins, Almirola would clinch with 33 points.
  • Kyle Larson – If there is a new winner, Larson would clinch on points with 40 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Dillon or Bowman), Larson would clinch with 37 points.  If Ryan Blaney wins, Larson would clinch with 38 points.
  • Kurt Busch – If there is a new winner, Busch would clinch on points with 43 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Elliott, Dillon or Bowman), Busch would clinch with 40 points. If Blaney wins, Larson would clinch with 41 points.
  • Chase Elliott – If there is a new winner, Elliott would clinch with 48 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Kurt Busch, Dillon or Bowman), Elliott would clinch on points with 45 points.  If Blaney wins, Elliott clinch with 46 points.
  • Austin Dillon – If there is a new winner, Dillon would clinch with 48 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Kurt Busch, Elliott or Bowman), Dillon would clinch with 45 points.  If Blaney wins, Dillon would clinch with 46 points.
  • Alex Bowman – If there is a new winner, Bowman would clinch with 53 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Kurt Busch, Elliott or Dillon), Bowman would clinch on points with 50 points.  If Blaney wins, Bowman would clinch with 51 points.
  • Ryan Blaney – If there is a new winner, Blaney would clinch with 54 points.  If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Kurt Busch, Elliott or Dillon), Blaney would clinch with 51 points.  If Bowman wins, Blaney would clinch with 52 points.
  • Clint Bowyer – If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Truex, Harvick, Logano, Almirola, Larson, Kurt Busch, Elliott or Dillon), Bowyer would clinch with 55 points.  With a win, Bowyer would clinch a next round spot.  Bowyer could clinch on points with a new winner and help.
  • Jimmie Johnson – With a win, Johnson would clinch a next round spot. Johnson could clinch on points with a new winner and help.
  • Erik Jones – With a win, Jones would clinch a next round spot.  Jones could clinch on points with a new winner and help.
  • Denny Hamlin – With a win, Hamlin would clinch a next round spot.  Hamlin could clinch on points with a new winner and help.