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Dr. Diandra: Tyler Reddick’s move to 23XI Racing promising but questions remain

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Nate Ryan and Steve Letarte break down Ross Chastain's incident with Kyle Larson at Dover and whether Chastain's history of aggressive driving will begin to impact how drivers approach racing against him.

The numbers from the first 11 races of the 2023 season indicate that Tyler Reddick’s move to 23XI Racing appears to be paying off. With more than two-thirds of the season left, though, questions remain about Reddick’s championship potential with his new team.

I was much more confident that Kyle Busch moving to RCR would benefit Busch than I was that Reddick’s move away from RCR would be good for him. In contrast to RCR’s storied history, 23XI turns three this year.

Newness is not necessarily a negative, as Trackhouse Racing proved last year. But it’s one thing for one of the best drivers in NASCAR history to bring his trove of experience to a well-established team. It’s another for a driver in his fourth year of full-time Cup Series competition to join a team still finding its feet. But I’m happy to report that Reddick seems to be doing just as well with his new team as Busch is with his.

Reddick’s move to 23XI: 2022 versus 2023

After 11 races, Reddick is performing better at 23XI than he did at RCR last year in most metrics. After starting 2023 with two DNFs, Reddick won at COTA, the sixth race overall and the first road course of the season.

As the table below shows, Reddick has four top-five finishes in 2023 compared to three in 2022. This year, he was running 20th or better when the checkered flag flew 72.7% of the time.

A table to help evaluate Tyler Reddick's move to 23XI Racing compares Reddick's 2023 stats with those of Kurt Busch, who drove the car in 2022

Reddick hasn’t led as many laps this year as last, but the current points system rewards wins and good finishes, not leading laps. Reddick’s 319 points put him in sixth place, 51 points behind leader Ross Chastain.

Reddick against the field

Given the many points penalties this year, season standings provide an incomplete picture of a driver’s status relative to his peers. Reddick’s average finish of 14.5 is the 10th best among all full-time drivers. Alex Bowman has the top average finish of 10.3, followed by Christopher Bell at 10.5

Reddick’s average running position is also 10th best. William Byron leads that stat with a 9.3. Denny Hamlin is second with a 10.4 average running position. Reddick finishes about the same position as he runs on average.

The No. 45 driver also finishes about where he starts. His average starting position of 14.7 is one metric that is worse this year relative to last. His average starting position in 2022 was 11.9.

But, again, you don’t get championships for starting at the front of the grid.

Loop data shows that Reddick has improved his restart rank significantly. He averaged a 15th ranking in 2022, but 8.4 in 2023. His green-flag speed is up slightly: 11.27 this year versus 12.6 last year.

Reddick versus Kurt Busch

Reddick wasn’t originally scheduled to drive for 23XI this year. He’d surprised everyone by signing a contract in 2022 to join his new team in 2024. Kyle Busch’s unexpected availability combined with Kurt Busch’s concussion issues hastened Reddick’s move.

With the caveat that last year was 23XI’s first year as a two-car team, it seems fair to compare Reddick’s first year in the No. 45 to Kurt Busch’s first year in the car.

A table to help evaluate Tyler Reddick's move to 23XI Racing compares his 2022 stats with those from 2023

Reddick shines in all categories — not surprising for a driver who won three races in the Next Gen car’s first year, including his first career win.

Open questions

While Reddick’s move to 23XI seems to be paying off, the season is only 11 races old. Here are a few items I’m monitoring to evaluate his chances to make it to the Championship 4.

Finishing races. Reddick had eight DNFs in 2022 and has two already this year. His 14th-place 2022 finish doesn’t reflect how good a driver he was when he did finish races. Four of his DNFs last year were at the first four superspeedways.

Engine failure caused two more DNFs. Although Reddick has moved from Chevy to Toyota, remember that Kyle Busch had two engine failures in the playoffs last year running for Toyota.

Conquering superspeedways. Drafting tracks were Reddick’s nemeses last year. His average superspeedway finish was 26.8. It’s 19.0 this year, improved in part because he has completed two of the three superspeedway races run so far.

Superspeedways play an outsize role in the championship because Daytona ends the regular season and drivers must get past Talladega to make it to the Round of 8.

Intermediate tracks still a question. This week at Kansas, along with the upcoming Charlotte race, are important tests for Reddick’s championship chances. His average finish last year at intermediate tracks was 17.1, with two DNFs out of the seven races.

Reddick finished 15th at Las Vegas this year, but that’s the only intermediate data point we have for him. 23XI swept Kansas last year, so expectations are high this weekend.

Given that 1.5-mile tracks make up four out of 10 playoff races, running well at these tracks is critical to making it to the championship.