Analysis: Kansas performance a must for three playoff drivers

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The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN) isn’t the cutoff race for the Round of 8. But its importance, based on the team and how said team may fare on tracks like this one, which uses the 550-horsepower rules package, may hold equal value to next weekend’s elimination tilt in Martinsville.

A potentially unexpected byproduct of NASCAR becoming a split-horsepower series is the ability of teams to choose their paths of focus. Among the remaining seven playoff drivers not already locked into the Championship 4, just three — Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney — have elite metrics across both 550 and 750-horsepower tracks. Walking between the two worlds, though, is a difficult task, especially in a year with a lame-duck car in which the series is enforcing a restriction on parts development, wind tunnel research and computational fluid dynamics tests.

Improvement appears more aspirational than tangible (so says the lack of volatility in the yearlong speed rankings), so with confidence we can assume the upcoming races in Kansas and Martinsville mean different things to different teams.

For Martin Truex Jr., now 22 points below the cutline after a crash relegated him to a 25th-place finish last week in Texas, the upcoming 750-horsepower tracks fit his team to a tee. Today’s race in Kansas, where he finished sixth in the spring with a car that turned the 11th-fastest median lap, isn’t part of the rules package he and crew chief James Small deemed most important.

But for Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, it’s a bad day to have a bad day, because Martinsville doesn’t appear to offer them much in the name of safety:

Brad Keselowski (-15 Points)

In the 2019 spring race at Martinsville, Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps en route to victory. A lot has changed since then — the spoiler size used at 750-horsepower tracks shrunk prior to 2020, the same year the driver changed crew chiefs. This season, a laser focus on short tracks deviated.

He’s now a better performer on 550-horsepower tracks, ranked ninth in average median lap time compared to 16th on 750-horsepower tracks, sixth in Production in Equal Equipment Rating compared to 25th and 11th in surplus passing value compared to 30th. His fourth-place run last week in Texas shouldn’t have surprised at all, given this predilection. And that result may have raised expectations for today’s race while simultaneously reminding us of how he can stumble out of the playoffs at Martinsville.

He finished 33rd at Martinsville this spring (with a car ranked 13th in median lap time) after restarts — displaying a lack of positional volatility despite a perception otherwise — held true to recent trends. If there’s one track left in this round that suits Keselowski’s hard-charging short-run strength, it’s Kansas, not Martinsville.

Kyle Busch (+8 Points)

The foundation of Busch’s first year with crew chief Ben Beshore is 550-horsepower tracks. This wasn’t lost on the driver following an eighth-place showing last weekend in Texas, also a 1.5-mile track utilizing the same horsepower-and-aero package.

“That’s discouraging,” Busch said last Sunday. “You’d like to think we could keep our mile-and-a-half presence alive, and next week is a mile-and-a-half, and we didn’t do that today.”

This round — comprised of two 550-horsepower tracks out of three — suits Busch, ranked third in average median lap time on tracks using the rules package, better than others. But if Texas was a lost opportunity, Kansas represents the final, most realistic chance at victory because Martinsville isn’t on par.

He ranks seventh in average median lap time on 750-horsepower tracks — and ranked eighth specifically at Martinsville in the spring — where he’s also less productive (14th in PEER compared to first on 550-horsepower tracks) and a less efficient passer (ranked 12th compared to third).

Out of 29 races on non-drafting tracks, Busch concluded just five with a negative adjusted pass differential. All but one were at facilities utilizing the 750-horsepower package that he’ll see at Martinsville.

Joey Logano (-43 Points)

Contrary to Keselowski and Busch, an argument can be made that Logano is the worst playoff driver this season on 550-horsepower tracks. His car is the slowest, based on its 14th-place median lap ranking, among all playoff teams. His PEER on tracks utilizing the package is -0.054, the fourth worst among full-time drivers.

And despite his second-place median lap ranking on 750-horsepower tracks, it’d be good for him to turn in a quality performance today. Martinsville, which should be seamless based on what Logano’s done well this year, threw him for a loop in the spring. He had the ninth-fastest car and finished sixth, a second-tier feat, if repeated, that surely wouldn’t do much to erase a point delta (currently 43 points) to the cutline.

A win from him today would most likely look as it did in the Kansas playoff race last year: A triumph as a result of flexible pit strategy, mistake-free stops (his crew earned a 16-position net gain) and cunning aero-blocking negating an otherwise ho-hum statistical performance in which Logano ended the afternoon with a negative adjusted pass differential (-11). Minimal degradation on worn tires at Kansas, around 0.7 seconds from the beginning of a run to its natural end, opens the playbook to inventive green-flag pit strategy, into which crew chief Paul Wolfe should lean.

This is Logano’s own personal wildcard round for a reason, and after his 30th-place Texas finish without stage points, he should take anything he could conceivably get.

Long: NASCAR needs to quickly correct officiating issue from Texas

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NASCAR’s admission that it did not see William Byron spin Denny Hamlin under caution during Sunday’s Cup playoff race is troubling.

With video evidence of impropriety and Hamlin’s team vigorously arguing for relief, there were enough reasons for series officials to take a closer look at putting Hamlin back to second before the race returned to green-flag conditions. Or some other remedy even after the race resumed. 

Add the lack of access series officials had to Byron’s in-car camera— something fans could readily see at NASCAR.com and the NASCAR Mobile App — and changes need to be made before this weekend’s playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway.

While NASCAR should make every effort to judge matters between drivers regardless of their playoff status, that it was two playoff drivers involved in an incident demanded greater attention. With three races per round, one misstep can mean the difference between advancing or being eliminated. 

Just as more is expected from drivers and teams in the playoffs, the same should be expected of officials.

“If we had seen that (contact) good enough to react to it in real time, which we should have, like no excuse there, there would probably have been two courses of action,” said Scott Miller, NASCAR senior vice president of competition Sunday night. “One would have been to put Hamlin back where he was, or the other would be to have made William start in the back.”

Here is how the incident played out:

The caution waved at Lap 269 for Martin Truex Jr.’s crash at 8:19 p.m. ET.

As Hamlin slowed, Byron closed and hit him in the rear. 

Byron admitted after the race the contact was intentional, although he didn’t mean to wreck Hamlin. Byron was upset with how Hamlin raced him on Lap 262. Byron felt Hamlin forced him into the wall as they exited Turn 2 side-by-side. Byron expressed his displeasure during the caution.

About 90 seconds after the caution lights illuminated, the USA broadcast showed a replay from a low angle of Byron directly behind Hamlin’s car and apparent contact. 

Contact can happen in multiple ways. It can come from the lead car hitting the brakes and forcing the car behind to hit them, or it can come from the trailing car ramming into the car ahead. The first video replay did not make it clear what caused the contact, making it difficult for any official to rule one way or the other based solely on that.

This also is a time when NASCAR officials were monitoring safety vehicles on track, checking the lineup and making sure pit road was ready to be open. It’s something NASCAR does effortlessly much of the time. Just not this time. 

A different replay aired on USA 11 minutes, 16 seconds after the caution that showed Byron and Hamlin’s car together. That replay aired about a minute before the green flag waved at 8:31 p.m. ET. Throughout the caution, Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gabehart argued that Hamlin should have restarted second.

But once the race resumed, the matter was over for NASCAR. Or so it seemed.

Three minutes after the green flag waved, the NASCAR Twitter account posted in-car video that showed Byron running into the back of Hamlin’s car while the caution was out. Such action is typically a penalty — often parking a driver for the rest of the race. Instead, Byron was allowed to continue and nothing was done during the rest of the event. 

After the race, Miller told reporters that series officials didn’t see the contact from Byron. 

“The cameras and the monitors that we’ve got, we dedicate them mostly to officiating and seeing our safety vehicles and how to dispatch them,” Miller said. “By the time we put all those cameras up (on the monitor in the control tower), we don’t have room for all of the in-car cameras to be monitored.

“If we would have had immediate access to (Byron)’s in-car camera, that would have helped us a lot, being able to find that quickly. That’s definitely one of the things we’re looking at.”

But it didn’t happen that way.

”By the time we got a replay that showed the incident well enough to do anything to it, we had gone back to green,” Miller said.

NASCAR didn’t act. By that time maybe it was too late to do so. But that’s also an issue. Shouldn’t the infraction be addressed immediately if it is clear what happened instead of days later? Shouldn’t officials have been provided with access to the in-car cameras so they could have seen Byron’s actions earlier and meted the proper punishment? Instead, Miller hinted at a possible penalty to Byron this week.

Miller didn’t reveal details but it wouldn’t be surprising to drop Byron in the field, costing him points. He’s 24 points from the cutline, so a penalty that drops him from seventh to 30th (the position ahead of Truex) could be logical and that would cost Byron 23 points, putting him near the cutline. 

Texas winner Tyler Reddick said something should have been done. He knows. He was parked in a 2014 Truck race at Pocono for wrecking German Quiroga in retaliation for an earlier incident.

“In William’s situation, whether he ran him over on accident or on purpose, there should be some sort of penalty for him on that side because he’s completely screwed someone’s race up, whether it was on purpose or not,” Reddick said. “I feel like there should be something done there.

“I’m sure (NASCAR will) make some sort of a decision. I’m sure there will be something they’ll address this week, updates, on NASCAR’s side. I’ll be curious to see what that is. We can’t really have this where you dump someone under caution, they go to the back and you don’t. That could potentially be an interesting situation in the future.”

Texas shuffles NASCAR Cup playoff standings

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Texas marked the fourth consecutive playoff race that the winner didn’t advance to the next round.

All three races in the first round were won by drivers not in the playoffs. Tyler Reddick won Sunday at Texas, a week after he failed to advance from the Round of 16 and was eliminated from title contention.

Texas did shake up the playoff standings. Chase Elliott entered as the points leader but a blown tire while leading sent his car into the wall, ending his race. He falls to the No. 8 spot, the final transfer position with two races left in this round. He’s tied with Daniel Suarez, but Suarez has the tiebreaker with a better finish this round.

Chase Briscoe, who scored only his second top 10 in the last 22 races, is the first driver outside a transfer spot. He’s four points behind Elliott and Suarez. Austin Cindric is 11 points out of the transfer spot. Christopher Bell is 29 points out of a transfer position. Alex Bowman is 30 points from the transfer line.

The series races Sunday at Talladega (2 p.m. ET on NBC).

 

XFINITY SERIES

Noah Gragson’s win at Texas moved him on to the next round. The win was his fourth in a row.

Ryan Sieg and Sam Mayer are tied for the final two transfer spots to the next round. Riley Herbst is one point behind them. Daniel Hemric is eight points from the final transfer spot. Brandon Jones is 13 points from the last transfer spot. Jeremy Clements is 29 points shy of the final transfer position.

The series races Saturday at Talladega (4 p.m. ET on USA Network).

 

 

CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES

The series was off this past weekend but returns to the track Saturday at Talladega. Ty Majeski has advanced to the championship race at Phoenix with his Bristol win.

 

Winners and losers at Texas Motor Speedway

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A look at the winners and losers from Sunday’s marathon race at Texas Motor Speedway:

WINNERS

Tyler Reddick – Reddick isn’t acting like a lame duck. Headed for 23XI Racing in 2024 (if not sooner), Reddick now owns three wins with Richard Childress Racing, the team he’ll be leaving.

Justin Haley – Haley, who has shown flashes of excellence this season for Kaulig Racing, matched his season-high with a third-place run.

Chase Briscoe — Briscoe wrestled with major problems in the early part of the race but rebounded to finish fifth. It’s his second top-10 finish in the last 22 races.

LOSERS

NASCAR Officials – Scott Miller, NASCAR senior vice president of competition, admitted that series officials missed William Byron spinning Denny Hamlin under caution after Martin Truex Jr.‘s crash. Such a situation could have major playoff implications, although Miller hinted that series officials may still act this week.

Christopher Bell – Bell met the wall twice after blown tires and finished a sour 34th, damaging his playoff run in a race that he said was critical in the playoffs.

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. – Harvick (finished 19th) and Truex (31st) were late-race victims of the day’s tire dilemma. Both crashed while leading.

Track workers  Somebody had to clean up all that tire debris.

Chase Elliott – Elliott remains a power in the playoffs, but he left Sunday’s race in a fiery exit after a blown tire while leading and finished 32nd. He holds the final transfer spot to the next round heading into Talladega.

 

 

Blown tires end race early for several Texas contenders

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FORT WORTH, Texas — A Goodyear official said that air pressures that teams were using contributed to some drivers blowing tires in Sunday’s Cup playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway.

Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. all crashed while leading after blowing a tire. Among the others who had tire issues were Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher Cole Custer and Christopher Bell twice. 

“We’re gaining as much information as we can from the teams, trying to understand where they are with regard to their settings, air pressures, cambers, suspicions,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing Sunday. “For sure I can say without a doubt air pressure is playing into it. We know where a lot of the guys are. Some were more aggressive than others. We know that plays a part.

MORE: NASCAR says it missed William Byron spinning Denny Hamlin under caution 

“I’m not saying that’s the only thing, but it’s certainly a factor, so we’re just trying to understand everything else that is going on with regard to specific teams. We know a lot of guys have not had issues. We’ve had guys put full fuel runs on tires, but, obviously, other guys have had issues. We’ll be working with them to try to sort through that is.”

Eight of the 16 cautions were related to tire failures that caused drivers to spin or crash.

“It’s not a good look, that’s for sure,” Ryan Blaney said of the tire issues others had. “How many leaders blew tires tonight? Three or four?

“You just don’t understand what is making these things do that. From last week to this week, it’s really unfortunate. It’s just luck now.

“You never know if you’re going to blow one. You go into (Turn) 3 almost every lap with 40 laps on your stuff and I don’t know if one is going to blow out or not. That’s not safe. That’s for sure. Running (180) into (Turn) 3 and the thing blows out and you have no time to react to it. It’s unfortunate. I hope we can figure that out.”

Blaney said he was confused that the tires were blowing partly into a run instead of much earlier.

“It was weird because those tires didn’t blow right away,” he said. “Like the pressures were low. They blew like after a cycle or two on them, which is the weird thing.”

Asked how he handles that uncertainty, Blaney said: “Nothing I can do about it. Just hope and pray.”

After his crash, Elliott was diplomatic toward Goodyear’s situation:

“I’m not sure that Goodyear is at fault,” he said. “Goodyear always takes the black eye, but they’re put in a really tough position by NASCAR to build a tire that can survive these types of racetracks with this car. I wouldn’t blame Goodyear.”

Tyler Reddick, who won Sunday’s race at Texas, said his team made adjustments to the air pressure settings after Saturday’s practice.

“We ran enough laps, were able to see that we had been too aggressive on our right front tire,” he said. “So we made some adjustments going into the race, thankfully.”

This same time was used at Kansas and will be used again at Las Vegas next month in the playoffs. 

Reddick is hopeful of a change but also knows it might take time.

“I just think to a degree, potentially, as these cars have gotten faster and we’re getting more speed out of them, maybe, hypothetically speaking, we’re putting the cars through more load and more stress on the tire than they ever really thought we would be,” he said. 

“I know Goodyear will fix it. That’s what they do. It’s going to be a process. I know they’re going to be on top of it. Hey, they don’t want to see those failures. We don’t want to see them either. They’re going to be working on looking through and trying to find out exactly what is going on. We’ll all learn from it.

“It’s a brand-new car. It’s the first time in the history of our sport we’ve gone to an 18-inch wheel and independent rear suspension. All these things are way different, diffuser. All these things, way different. We’re all learning together. Unfortunately, just the nature of it, we’re having tire failures.”