Kyle Larson is the heavy favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
Larson swept Victory Lane at Michigan in 2017, which combined with a win the previous season, gave him three consecutive. In his last appearance on this track, he finished third in 2019. Larson opened the week with a line of +300. In 2017, Larson also won on the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway, which is designed to be similar to the Michigan track. From summer 2016 through spring 2018, he amassed a six-race streak of finishes third or better at those two tracks.
One way to view American odds is to move the decimal point two positions to the left. That will let a bettor know what they will make on a $1 bet. The return on investment for +300 odds is $3.00. For bettors more comfortable with fractional odds, a line of +300 is the same as 3/1.
Chase Elliott is ranked a distant second at +800. Elliott began his Michigan career with three consecutive second-place finishes in 2016 and 2017. In his second race on this track that season, Elliott finished eighth, and while he has not yet cracked the top five again, six of his last seven efforts at Michigan ended in results of seventh through ninth.
With a current streak of four Michigan top fives, Martin Truex Jr. is ranked third at +850. In the past two seasons, Truex has three third-place results and a fourth. Since winning his third and most recent race at Darlington Raceway earlier this season, he has only one other top-five on an oval – a third at Atlanta Motor Speedway in that track’s second race.
Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch share the fourth-place ranking this week with a line of +900.
This is the first time Harvick has been listed under 10/1 in the last six weeks. The reason for this is simple. If Harvick is going to earn his first victory of 2021, Michigan is the best place to do so. He enters the weekend with three straight victories on this track and four in his last five attempts.
Busch has been practically perfect on 2-mile tracks in regard to recent top fives. Dating back to the beginning of 2018, he’s earned eight top fives and a sixth at Michigan and Auto Club. In 2017, he swept the top 10 on these two tracks.
The remainder of the field is listed at 10/1 or greater.
Denny Hamlin lost the points’ lead to Larson last week on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course after contact with Chase Briscoe with two laps remaining. Hamlin is ranked sixth this week with odds of +1000. He finished second in two of the last three Michigan races and was sixth in the other event.
Two other drivers of note both finished among the top five in the first race of last year’s Michigan doubleheader before crashing in Race 2.
Brad Keselowski finished second with Ryan Blaney fourth on Saturday. As the two battled for the lead the following day, they crashed on Lap 95 and failed to finish. Keselowski is listed at +1400 this week with Blaney at +1500.
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Dan Beaver handicaps NASCAR races for NBC Sports Edge.
