Despite finishing worse than 15th in two consecutive races, Kyle Larson is PointsBet Sportsbook’s early odds favorite for Sunday’s Cup race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
Early odds list him at +520 this week. Larson has not opened with odds this high in the last five weeks. By comparison, he opened at +250 last week. Larson was +900 the last time NASCAR visited a 1-mile flat track at Phoenix Raceway.
Larson finished second in both races on this flat 1-mile oval in 2017, the last year New Hampshire hosted two races. But he failed to crack the top 10 in his latest two starts in 2018 and 2019.
One way to view American Odds is to move the decimal point two positions to the left. That will let a bettor know what they will make on a $1 bet. The return on investment for +520 odds is $5.20. For bettors more comfortable with fractional odds, a line of +300 is the same as 3/1.
The next favorite is Martin Truex, Jr. at +625, who finished seventh or better in his last six New Hampshire starts. Truex is coming off a strong third-place showing at Atlanta Motor Speedway last week, which accounts for some of the traders’ confidence. Truex won the Phoenix race earlier this year with odds of +1200.
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are tied for third in the listing with odds of +675.
Hamlin has back-to-back second-place finishes in the two most recent races on this track. He last won at New Hampshire in July 2017.
Kyle Busch won that year’s second New Hampshire race, then finished second the following year. Last year, he crashed on Lap 15 and finished 38th.
Chase Elliott is ranked fifth with odds of +850, marking only the fifth time this season that Elliott has ranked fifth or worse. In seven previous starts at New Hampshire, Elliott has only one top-five finish. He was fifth in 2018.
Kevin Harvick continues to face long odds at +1300. He won three of the last six New Hampshire races and was fifth last year, but he has not yet visited Victory Lane in 2021 and that impacts his odds.
Last year’s New Hampshire winner, Brad Keselowski, is ranked just outside the top five with odds of +900.
Kurt Busch won last week with odds of +3300. This week, he is listed at +2800, which is the fifth-best line he has seen at the beginning of the week this season.
Kurt Busch has three wins on this track, the most recent of which was earned in 2008. Since then, he has three top-five finishes in 22 starts.
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Dan Beaver handicaps NASCAR races for NBC Sports Edge.