What matters at Nashville: Tire wear, Joey Logano’s strength are focal points

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What matters in today’s NASCAR Cup Series race and how might a dynamic with heavy tire wear but minimal lap-time degradation affect pit strategy? Let’s dive into the analytics and trends shaping the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN).

What we know and what we think we know about Nashville’s tire wear

NASCAR returns to Nashville Superspeedway after a 10-year hiatus, and for the Cup Series specifically, this is an inaugural event. In the preparation has come uncertainty over tire wear. From teams, there are mixed thoughts about how Goodyear’s hard tire combination — the left sides last used at Charlotte, the right sides last used at Dover — will handle loads heavier than in 2011, a chief reason why the compounds for today’s race err on the side of safety.

From NASCAR, there was reason to believe the track wouldn’t take rubber. Lap times from tire tests at Nashville saw little degradation over long runs. If tires physically wear without significant lap-time falloff, it’d make for a peculiar dynamic, though not one without precedence: Texas’ race last summer, won by Austin Dillon, saw heavy wear and practically no falloff, allowing for a two-tire stop under caution, leapfrogging him from seventh to second, and an overtake for the lead thanks to three restarts inside the final 25 laps.

Precautions and performance enhancers — resin and a tire dragon among other potential aids — have been applied to the concrete surface in hopes of creating a safer, more competitive environment, but even with Saturday’s practice session in the can, questions surround the building of pit strategy around Nashville’s tire wear.

If Chase Briscoe’s reaction following his participation in the tire test is any indication, track position will come at a premium.

“I was surprised, honestly, with how much brake we were using and just how much speed we carried,” Briscoe said this week. “That kind of caught me off guard. I think passing is gonna be a little challenging, but I think the good cars are definitely gonna rise to the front at a place like this just because handling is gonna be quite a bit of an issue.”

If Nashville’s tire wear is a factor physically but not mathematically, it opens the door for all strategies under caution-flag conditions and under green:

  • Under caution-flag conditions, calls for four tires will be common, especially if the “look” of the wear is bad, but two-tire stops could shift track position fortunes. Given the lack of degradation, defending an upgraded running spot in clean air is feasible.
  • Under green, short-pitting and long-pitting are both viable, made more advantageous with clean laps at speed before and after the stop. To wit, Kyle Larson’s unfettered laps at Las Vegas nullified the delta created by Brad Keselowski’s faster pit sequences, proving pit cycles are impacted by more than just the stop itself.
  • Long-pitting provides an additional bet on a caution flag with relatively minimal risk due to the lack of lap-time falloff.

While long-pitting doesn’t always lead to the intended outcome, it does provide large single-race positional gains if a timely caution is called, a high-risk, high-reward strategy, in theory. Had NASCAR deemed Tyler Reddick’s runaway tire an immediate caution at Kansas, a track where degradation was minimal, four teams were in position to land a combined 52 spots courtesy of their long-pitting efforts. Two of those teams — belonging to Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Daniel Suárez — secured net gains anyway, a testament to their execution of the pit sequences.

Stars aligning for Logano?

On the surface, there aren’t many similarities between the Bristol dirt race, the Circuit of the Americas road course and Nashville. But all three are new to NASCAR for 2021 and contained practice sessions beforehand.

A driver who benefited from Bristol’s dirt race and the first Cup race at COTA was Joey Logano, who scored his only win to this point in the season on the dirt. He also led over a quarter of the rain-shortened road race. In addition to being an early adopter to new venues, his strength this season on 750-horsepower tracks bears few rivals.

His Team Penske No. 22 car ranks second in average median lap on 750-horsepower tracks this season and Logano specifically ranks first in Production in Equal Equipment Rating, a consideration of a driver’s race result that handicaps team and equipment strength in an attempt to isolate his contribution, across the nine races utilizing the rules package:

Additionally, no driver is performing better in crash-filled contests. His 6.687 PEER in events with higher-than-usual caution volumes, greater than two per 100 miles, ranks first. It’s certainly not a given that Nashville will see a large quantity of caution flags — there won’t be a competition caution during the first stage, as a sufficient amount of practice time occurred Saturday — but in the instance the race breaks chaotic, it’s another statistical advantage in his back pocket.

An integral part of one of the 10 best short-run teams this season, Logano’s restarts have been key in influencing outcomes in races filled with them. He ranks eighth in average positional net on preferred-groove attempts (+0.75 spots) and is tied for third on non-preferred groove attempts (-0.71 spots). He’s one of just five full-time drivers averaging a positive positional net on restarts from inside the first seven rows.

A final oval-track vestige for Joe Gibbs Racing?

The layout of races on the recent schedule — Dover, COTA, Charlotte, Sonoma and Texas (for the All-Star Race) — have catered to Hendrick Motorsports, which claimed victory in all five events. This has muddied the narrative a bit, deemphasizing Joe Gibbs Racing, the organization that’s widely dominated 750-horsepower tracks this season.

Denny Hamlin, whose No. 11 car ranks first in average median lap on 750-horsepower tracks, and Martin Truex Jr., whose three wins each came on tracks utilizing this rules package that are also present on the playoff schedule, appear poised to fare well at Nashville, one of the last two 750-horsepower oval races of the regular season.

But Hamlin is skeptical after a Saturday practice session which saw his Toyota Camry place eighth on the speed chart, the fastest non-Chevrolet vehicle.

“We are off a ways for sure,” Hamlin said. “My objective is to just get my car as good as I can get it. If I can’t run with (the Chevrolets), I can’t run with them. If there are four cars in particular that are faster than us, then it’s my job to finish fifth.”

For the season, Hamlin hasn’t ranked worse than fifth in average median lap time in a 750-horsepower oval race, which came earlier this month at Dover.

For Christopher Bell, whose speed (ranked ninth in average median lap) and production rating (ranked ninth) skews towards 750-horsepower tracks, this is, on paper, his best chance to secure a good day before the playoffs starts. Among all track types, 750s are the only one in which Bell has registered a positive surplus passing value this season and he was one of three drivers to take part in the Goodyear tire tests, along with Briscoe and Kurt Busch during the event’s buildup.

Bell had the 20th-fastest lap in practice and ranked 17th in average lap time.

NASCAR Awards to air at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on Peacock

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Joey Logano didn’t need much time to answer the question.

Who would the two-time Cup champion want to introduce him at the NASCAR Awards?

Racing icon Mario Andretti, Logano immediately said. 

And there was Andretti on the stage at the Music City Center introducing Logano, the 2022 Cup champion. Watch that and the rest of the night’s festivities at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on Peacock. You can order Peacock here.

MORE: See the red carpet scene

MORE: Sport shows support for Gibbs family at NASCAR Awards

NBC Sports’ Marty Snider and Kim Coon co-hosted the show along with Fox Sports’ Kaitlyn Vincie. The Cup, Xfinity and Truck champions were honored. Xfinity champion Ty Gibbs, whose father died hours after Gibbs won the Xfinity title last month, received a standing ovation and thanked the industry for its support.

The highlight of the night for Logano was having Andretti on stage to introduce him.

“He’s just been a great role model for me, not only as a racer, but as a person for so long,” Logano said afterward. “I had his picture on my wall. I looked at Mario Andretti before I went to sleep every night as a kid. I thought it was the coolest thing that he signed it to me.”

NASCAR Awards and Champion Celebration
Cup champion Joey Logano on stage with racing icon Mario Andretti during the NASCAR Awards in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Logano and Andretti have gotten to know each other through the years. Logano ran a throwback car that honored Andretti at Darlington Raceway in 2015 and 2021.

But none of that compared to being on stage with Andretti.

“That’s still like a pinch-me moment,” Logano said. “It’s Mario Andretti. He’s the man. The fact that he knows my name I think is really, really cool.”

Catch the NASCAR Awards at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on Peacock

Sport shows support for Gibbs family at NASCAR Awards

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The NASCAR community showed its support Thursday at the NASCAR Awards for the Gibbs family, grieving the death of Coy Gibbs on Nov. 6. 

During his interview on stage, car owner Joe Gibbs thanked the NASCAR industry for its support. (The NASCAR Awards show airs at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on Peacock).

Coy Gibbs, son of Joe Gibbs and father of Xfinity champion Ty Gibbs, died hours after seeing Ty Gibbs win the series title last month at Phoenix Raceway. Coy Gibbs, 49, was the vice chairman and chief operating officer at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Steve O’Donnell, NASCAR chief operating officer, introduced Ty Gibbs at the NASCAR Awards and noted that “everyone gathered tonight is all a part of the NASCAR family, and I know I speak for everyone that the entire NASCAR family is 100% percent behind this young man.”

Ty Gibbs received a standing ovation.

“Thank you,” he told the crowd, “that means a lot.”

Ty Gibbs spoke for less than a minute, thanking his team, sponsors, fans and the NASCAR community.

He closed his speech by saying “And thanks to my family. I love you. I hope everybody has a great offseason. Enjoy it. Thank you for all the support. Thank you for all the claps. I really appreciate it.”

Ty Gibbs spoke to the media earlier Thursday. Asked how he was doing, he said: “I’ve been doing good. Thank you for asking and definitely appreciate you guys. We’ve been doing good, doing a lot of stuff this week. … It’s been fun to experience this stuff.”

Asked about Joe Gibbs addressing the organization after Coy’s death, Ty Gibbs politely said: “For right now, I’m not going to touch on any of that subject at all. I’m just going to stick with all the racing questions and go from there.”

Cup champion Joey Logano said he spent time with 20-year-old Ty Gibbs on Wednesday at the champion’s dinner.

Logano said he told Ty Gibbs that “we’re here for you. You need something reach out.”

Brennan Poole joins Bayley Currey at JD Motorsports for 2023

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Brennan Poole will join Bayley Currey at JD Motorsports for the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity season, the team announced Friday.

Poole will drive the No. 6 car for the full season. Currey returns to the team’s No. 4 car for the season. Currey scored five top-15 finishes last season for the organization.

JD Motorsports is planning to run the No. 0 car next season. No driver or sponsor has been announced for that ride.

“We’re full throttle here and getting ready to go,” Davis said in a statement from the team. “Bayley and Brennan are signed on and looking forward to chasing races and points next year. We’re actively moving along looking for sponsor commitments and for drivers and sponsors for the No. 0 car.”

“We’ve always taken the approach here that we want to go after the series with multiple cars, and that’s how we’re looking toward 2023. The new schedule is very interesting and provides new challenges to our drivers and team members.”

The 2023 Xfinity season begins Feb. 18 at Daytona International Speedway.

Friday 5: Will Kyle Busch become NASCAR’s Tom Brady, Peyton Manning?

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The weight of an unfulfilled season, deciding where he’d race in 2023 and the impact on his Truck Series team are off Kyle Busch.

It’s back to racing for the two-time Cup champion, who seeks to reignite his career at Richard Childress Racing this season.

Busch performed his final duty representing Joe Gibbs Racing at Thursday’s NASCAR Awards (show airs at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on Peacock) and it’s now all about helping RCR win its first Cup championship since 1994.

MORE: NASCAR Awards red carpet scene

Busch will be with Richard Childress Racing this weekend at Circuit of the Americas for World Racing League endurance events. Busch said the team has turned an old Cup car into an endurance car for the event. Last year, RCR won an eight-hour endurance race there with Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick and Kaz Grala.

Busch seeks better fortunes at RCR than what he’s had recently at Joe Gibbs Racing.

He has one Cup win in his last 53 starts — 14 drivers have won more races than Busch in that span, dating back to the July 2021 race at Road America.

His 17 top-10 finishes this past season were his fewest since scoring 16 top 10s in 2015. 

He was running at the finish in 29 of 36 points races — the first time he’s been running at the finish in fewer than 30 races since 2015. Two blown engines in the opening round of the playoffs led to failing to advance to the second round for the first time in his career. 

“It’s obviously been a challenging, not just this year, but the last little while,” Busch said Thursday at the Music City Center. “So, it’s kind of maybe a blessing in disguise, honestly, where it might just be time for a fresh start, time for something new, time for something different.”

He looks to future NFL Hall of Fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning for inspiration.

Brady won six Super Bowls with the New England Patriots before  joining Tampa Bay and winning a Super Bowl in his first season with the Buccaneers.

Manning won a Super Bowl with the Indianapolis Colts before joining the Denver Broncos and winning a Super Bowl there in his final season in the NFL.

“I’m kind of looking at it as a Tom Brady, Peyton Manning aspect where they left great teams, great organizations where they won championships and they were able to win a championship somewhere else,” Busch said. “I’d like to think I still have that opportunity to be able to do that at RCR.

“I look at the opportunity with the new Next Gen race car as an easier move to make now with that vs. years past with previous generation cars.”

He says that because with the previous generation of cars, there was a greater separation between teams because NASCAR did not regulate as much of the car. With the the Next Gen car, teams have the same parts. Two-time Cup champion Joey Logano that his team still has much to learn about the car and maximizing setups. 

Even with his struggles at the end of his tenure at Joe Gibbs Racing, Busch says he doesn’t go to RCR with a chip on his shoulder. 

“I don’t think I have anything to prove or I need to have a chip on my shoulder,” Busch said. “I just want to go out there and run well again. … I felt like we had a lot of strong runs this year. There were like six races I can count that we could’ve, would’ve, should’ve won and we didn’t whip is very frustrating. 

“We were so good at giving them away that I need to get back to I’m so good at stealing them and earning them.”

2. Special delivery 

Among the perks with winning a Cup title is getting the Champion’s Journal. Jimmie Johnson started the tradition after his 2010 championship. The existence of the journal remained a secret until 2017 when Johnson posted a picture on social media of him handing the journal to Martin Truex Jr.

The journal passes from champion to champion with the current champion holding on to it for a year and adding an entry for the next champion before handing it to them. Logano will receive the journal from Kyle Larson. 

“I can’t wait to read it again,” Logano said before Thursday’s NASCAR Awards. “I’m telling you, it’s probably one of the coolest things. Jimmie deserves all of the credit for coming up with the idea. 

“I wish it started sooner. It’s so interesting. Some drivers are very detailed what they write to the next champion and some are kind of quick and simple. It’s very interesting to read it. It’s cool. It’s a real secret. It’s kind of like an unwritten rule, you can’t take pictures of it and post it. It’s a thing that only the championship drivers know and have read and seen.

“Every time I get it, I’m so nervous. I’m like don’t spill anything on this thing, don’t lose it. It would suck to be the guy that loses that. That would be bad. I’m putting it right in the safe.”

Logano won his first Cup title in 2018. He then gave the journal to Kyle Busch, the 2019 series champion.

“It’s something you put a lot of thought into, at least I did,” Logano said of what he penned. “I wrote a letter to Kyle. You put a lot of thought into it. It’s something that will be there as long as our sport is around. I hope so at least. It’s a really great tradition.”

3. Fun factor 

The day of last year’s NASCAR Awards, William Byron said he wanted compete in more races outside NASCAR in 2022. 

Byron, who seeks to make Sunday’s prestigious Snowball Derby Super Late Model race, has fulfilled his goal, winning, gaining confidence but also having fun.

“What I got out of it was immediate fun, sort of relief,” Byron said of racing various Super Late Model races this year. “It was not racing the Cup car. It was different. It was not as stressful working with the team and things like that because there’s not as much on the line. There’s still prize money and things, and honestly you’re there to have fun. I enjoyed that.

“As I got going in it, I realized how productive it really was for me to do it, how much I was learning. As I did it more often throughout the season, I learned little nuances that were helping me get back in the Cup car with a better skill set.”

That element of fun stood out to Byron. Cup racing is full of pressure with the multi-million dollar sponsors, expectations to win and all the people at the shop relying on the car’s performance. That’s significant pressure, on top of what any driver puts on themself.

“There’s a lot of guys that you are trying to provide for and do a good job for,” Byron said of Cup racing. “There is a weight to that. You want to perform for those guys that work non-stop at the shop. There’s just a much broader net that you are casting as a driver. Whenever you go to the short track level, it’s you and six to 10 guys working on the car. … There’s natural pressure with what we’re trying to do at the Cup level because it is the No. 1 motorsports in the U.S.”

4. Looking for a ride

Ross Chastain says he’s been “trying for years” to get a ride in the Rolex 24 at Daytona International Speedway without success but that hasn’t deterred him.

“I’ve met with the president of IMSA,” said Chastain, who finished second to Joey Logano for the Cup title this season. “I’ve met with team owners. I’ve talked to drivers. I just can’t find my way in yet. I haven’t found the right person yet to either tell me how to do it or give me the opportunity. I could show up with sponsorship and get a ride, but how do I get in as a race car driver? I haven’t found that spot yet.”

Chastain said he’s reached out to some this offseason with no luck. 

He said the prestige of the season-opening IMSA event (Jan. 28-29, 2023) draws him but he also wants to gain more experience racing on a road course — even with his win at Circuit of the Americas this past season. And Chastain is not picky on the type of ride he’d like to have for that race.

“I’m not even looking to be in the top class. I want to find a mid-pack Xfinity team of the Rolex and go run there and experience it and then just to be around those road racers that do it year around. I know I could learn something. … I just want to race.”

5. Indy 500-Coke 600 double

It has been eight years since Kurt Busch competed in the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, the last time the feat has been accomplished. 

Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are among those who have expressed interest in running both races in the same day but don’t appear to be in a position to do so in 2023 because of the limited IndyCar rides available. 

Roger Penske, owner of the IndyCar Series and Indianapolis Motor Speedway, said he could see Jimmie Johnson attempting it this year, and others as soon as next year. 

“It’s about having the car and the manufactures, whether it’s Chevy and or Honda,” Penske said, referring to the IndyCar manufacturers. “All would be interested to see somebody run the double. Maybe Jimmie is going to do it, which would be great. 

“He has the experience. He did very well on the ovals. … It’s my understanding that he’s going to run potentially the 600 as one of his races (with Petty GMS). We’ll see.”