What matters at COTA: Elliott, Truex in their own road course tier


What matters in today’s NASCAR Cup Series race and how do Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. hold an advantage over other drivers? Let’s dive into the analytics and trends that will shape the EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (2:30 p.m. ET on FS1):

Elliott, Truex share ability to pad stats, stage comebacks

Elliott and Truex occupy a tier to themselves on NASCAR road courses, reflected in the weekend’s betting odds and the superficial stat lines — they’ve combined to win eight of the last 10 road races — across the last four seasons.

Who has the upper hand on the other may come down to the venue in question. COTA, like most road courses, is unique in shape with natural, significant elevation changes. Though not all traits of their talent are translatable, what we’ve seen recently from Truex and Elliott at both natural road courses and stadium road courses appears promising.

They ranked first and second in surplus passing value — the difference in a driver’s adjusted pass efficiency and the expected APE of a driver with the same average running position, based on a field-wide slope — on road courses from 2019-21. Additionally, both drivers showcased an ability to throw down massive single-race passing numbers:

Whereas a +4.00% SPV would represent a dominant showing for a race winner on a normal oval track, sky-high surplus rates are the norm for Elliott and Truex on road courses, where passing numbers are especially volatile.

Elliott’s 2019 win on the Roval came in a come-from-behind effort following his solo crash on Lap 65, a race in which he created 32.8 positions beyond what was statistically expected of someone with his average running position. On the same track a year later, Truex recorded 65 passes and was never passed for position outside of green-flag pit cycles (where he lost 26 spots), more than 59 positions better than what was anticipated.

Truex believes parts of his base road course skillset are transferrable regardless of the track configuration.

“I think a general road course set of skills will translate to other road courses,” Truex said. “They all have a little bit of unique tendencies when it comes to grip and asphalt, elevation changes, the way the curbs are, things like that, that can play into your strengths or weaknesses.

“For me, it’s understanding what it takes to make speed on a road course. It’s understanding what it takes to make a heavy stock car, without a lot of grip and a lot of horsepower, how to make the most time on those road courses.

“Then, it’s really about being able to hold the car on the limit and not make mistakes because you talk about road course having 10, 12, 14 corners, one little mistake — overdrive one corner — you screw up your whole lap. A lot of it is really about discipline and understanding where the limit is and not making mistakes.”

Truex, though, isn’t impervious to mistakes on road courses. His effort in February’s Busch Clash exhibition resulted in a last-place finish after heavy damage and a procedural penalty for missing a chicane under caution-flag conditions.

Elliott is also far from perfect. In addition to his topsy-turvy performance in the 2019 Roval race, his pressing late in February’s Daytona points race led to a spin nine laps from the finish which helped relegate him to a 21st-place result despite having the fastest car for the entire event.

But their imperfections don’t seem to limit their chances at victory. Their abilities to make speed and pass efficiently suit them for epic comebacks and showings of a gaudy statistical caliber.

Strength on 750-horsepower ovals matters … at COTA

Comparing oval strength to road course strength is an exercise in nuance, but given that road courses in NASCAR are utilizing the 750-horsepower, low-downforce package seen on the schedule’s smaller ovals, it’s worth trying to comprehend how one might translate to the other.

Specifically at COTA, the central focuses on aero and grip at 750 horsepower should matter a great deal. The 3.41-mile course is a venue unlike any we’ve seen in the Cup Series across the last 30 years, far different from Sonoma or Watkins Glen.

The glaring difference is COTA’s two monster straights, the longest of which runs 0.67 miles between turns 11 and 12, while the other includes the start-finish line. The need for speed between corner exit and corner entry is real, naturally catering to teams that can reliably coax straight-line speed.

But those heavy straights come with heavier braking zones and offer advantages to drivers who can work brake and throttle well enough for efficient launches into the subsequent section. Interestingly, five of COTA’s most crucial turns are big left-handers, including the final turn before the start-finish line.

It’s these similarities that make Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, the two fastest drivers this season on 750-horsepower tracks, two drivers to watch in today’s race:

Logano and Hamlin have combined for two wins on road courses (Logano in 2015, Hamlin in 2016, both at Watkins Glen) throughout their time in NASCAR, but their brand of speed is ubiquitous on 750-horsepower tracks this season, including the lone road course race, on Daytona’s infield course, where they finished second and third, respectively.

Byron’s road racing acumen on the rise, thanks to repetitions at local karting track

When NASCAR last qualified on a regular basis, William Byron proved himself a reliable one-lap wonder, winning five poles and securing front-row starting spots in each of the three road course races that season. His knack for ripping off fast single lap times continued Saturday, when he secured the best lap during the weekend’s lone, rainy practice session.

But he’s more than a good short-run racer. Across the six road course races in 2019-21, he secured the third-most efficient surplus passing value (+7.09%, good for 71 positions beyond his statistical expectation), trailing only Truex and Elliott. This kind of efficient maneuvering may lead one to believe Byron’s star as a road racer is on the rise, a result of time spent working with one of the industry’s foremost driving coaches.

Max Papis, a former NASCAR, IndyCar and sports car competitor and Rolex 24 winner, has served as Byron’s performance advisor since 2014. Over the last seven years, they spent significant time at GoPro Motorplex, a kart track in Mooresville, N.C.

The 23-year-old driver believes his work with Papis and repetitions on the kart track is what formed his road racing acumen.

“He’s been probably the biggest asset for me when it comes to getting comfortable with a road course,” said Byron, who insists his deliberate kart-track practice with Papis, rain or shine, enhanced his appreciation of the craft. “It sounds silly, but that’s kind of where I grew to like it and enjoy it.

“And then if you like something and enjoy it, you work on it and get better and I’ve done it at the karting track.”

Today’s race is arguably his best chance to date at winning a Cup Series road race, given his speed. He enters the race at COTA with the fastest team in the series based on average median lap rank. The No. 24 car specifically ranks fourth on 750-hp tracks, tops among Hendrick Motorsports entries.

Rick Hendrick hopes rough racing settles down after Chase Elliott suspension


LE MANS, France (AP) — Rick Hendrick fully supports Chase Elliott as he returns from a one-race suspension for deliberately wrecking Denny Hamlin, but the team owner believes on-track aggression has gotten out of control this season and NASCAR sent a message by parking the superstar.

“Until something was done, I think that kind of rough racing was going to continue,” Hendrick told The Associated Press on Thursday.

Elliott missed last week’s race outside St. Louis as the five-time fan-voted most popular driver served a one-race suspension for retaliating against Hamlin in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The two had made contact several times, with Elliott hitting the wall before he deliberately turned left into Hamlin to wreck him.

Hamlin immediately called on NASCAR to suspend Elliott, which the sanctioning body did despite his star power and the effect his absence from races has on TV ratings. Elliott missed six races earlier this season with a broken leg suffered in a snowboarding crash and NASCAR lost roughly 500,000 viewers during his absence.

Hendrick, at the 24 Hours of Le Mans with NASCAR’s special Garage 56 project, told the AP he understood the suspension. NASCAR last year suspended Bubba Wallace one race for intentionally wrecking Kyle Larson, another Hendrick driver.

“Pushing and shoving, it’s a fine line, and when someone puts you out of the race, you get roughed up, emotions take over and you react,” Hendrick said. “I think maybe guys will run each other a little bit cleaner moving forward. “We understand the suspension, and nobody really likes to have to go through that, but you just do it and move on.”

Hendrick said he believes drivers have gotten far too aggressive with the second-year Next Gen car, which has not only tightened the field but is a durable vehicle that can withstand bumping and banging. Contact that used to end a driver’s day now barely leaves a dent.

It’s led to drivers being more forceful and, in Hendrick’s opinion, too many incidents of drivers losing their cool.

“There’s rubbing. But if you just harass people by running them up into the wall, every time you get to them, you get tired of it,” Hendrick said. “And that’s what so many of them do to cause accidents, but then they don’t get in the accident themselves.

“I think everybody understands the rules. But you’ve got an awful lot of tension and when you’re out their racing like that, and you are almost to the finish, and somebody just runs over you for no reason, I think the cars are so close and it’s so hard to pass, they get frustrated.”

Elliott, with seven missed races this season, is ranked 27th in the standings heading into Sunday’s road course race in Sonoma, California. He’s been granted two waivers by NASCAR to remain eligible for the playoffs, but the 2020 champion needs to either win a race or crack the top 16 in standings to make the field.

An outstanding road course racer with seven wins across several tracks, Elliott will be motivated to get his first win of the season Sunday at Sonoma, one of the few road courses on the schedule where he’s winless.

Hendrick said when he spoke to Elliott he urged him to use caution moving forward.

“I just said ‘Hey, we’ve got to be careful with that,’” Hendrick said. “But I support him, I really do support him. You get roughed up and it ruins your day, you know, you let your emotions take over.”

Concussion-like symptoms sideline Noah Gragson

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Noah Gragson will not compete in Sunday’s Cup race at Sonoma Raceway because of concussion-like symptoms he experienced this week after his crash at WWT Raceway, Legacy MC announced Thursday.

Grant Enfinger will drive the No. 42 in place of Gragson.

“Noah’s health is the highest of priorities and we commend him for making the decision to sit out this weekend,” said team co-owners Maury Gallagher and Jimmie Johnson in a statement from the team. “We are appreciative that Grant was available and willing to step in since the Truck Series is off this weekend.”

The team states that Gragson was evaluated and released from the infield care center after his crash last weekend at WWT Raceway. He began to experience concussion-like symptoms mid-week and is seeking treatment.

Gragson is 32nd in the points in his rookie Cup season.

Enfinger is available with the Craftsman Truck Series off this weekend. Enfinger is coming off a victory in last weekend’s Truck race at WWT Raceway for GMS Racing, which is owned by Gallagher. That was Enfinger’s second Truck win of the season.

NASCAR implements safety changes after Talladega crash

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NASCAR is implementing changes to Cup cars that strengthen the right side door area and soften the frontal area after reviewing the crash between Kyle Larson and Ryan Preece at Talladega Superspeedway in April.

The changes are to be in place for the July 9 race weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Larson and Preece were uninjured in the vicious crash late in the race at Talladega. Larson’s car was turned and slid down the track to the apron before coming back up in traffic. Preece’s car slammed into the right side door area of Larson’s car.

Dr. John Patalak, NASCAR vice president of safety engineering, said the difference in velocity of the two cars at the time of impact was 59 mph.

“It’s pretty hard to find that on the racetrack normally,” Patalak told reporters Thursday during a briefing.

The severe impact moved a right side door bar on Larson’s car. NASCAR announced last month that it was allowing teams to add six right side door bar gussets to prevent the door bars from buckling in such an impact.

Thursday, NASCAR announced additional changes to the cars. The changes come after computer simulations and crash testing.

NASCAR is mandating:

  • Steel plate welded to the right side door bars
  • Front clips will be softened
  • Front bumper strut softening
  • Front ballast softening
  • Modified cross brace

Patalak said that NASCAR had been working on changes to the car since last year and did crash testing in January at the Transportation Research Center in East Liberty, Ohio. NASCAR did more work after that crash test.

As for the changes to the front of the car, Patalak said: “From an engineering standpoint we’re reducing the buckling strength of those individual parts and pieces. The simplified version is we are increasing the amount of crush that the front clip will be capable of. That’s all an effort to reduce the accelerations that the center section and driver will be exposed to during these frontal crashes.”

Adding the steel plate to the door bars is meant to strengthen that area to prevent any type of intrusion or buckling of the door bars in a similar type of crash.

Patalak also said that NASCAR inspected the car of Blaine Perkins that barrel rolled during the Xfinity race at Talladega in April. Patalak said that NASCAR consulted with Dr. James Raddin, Jr., who was one of the four authors of the Earnhardt investigation report in 2001 for the sanctioning body, in that incident.

Dr. Diandra: Brad Keselowski driving RFK Racing revival


Brad Keselowski surprised many when he didn’t re-sign with Team Penske in 2021. Penske was his home since 2010, and the team who helped him to a Cup Series championship in 2012. But Jack Roush offered Keselowski something Roger Penske couldn’t — ownership stake in the team.

Keselowski knew an RFK Racing revival would be an challenge, but also that he was prepared for it.

“I’ve been studying my whole life for this moment, and I’m ready for the test,” Keselowski said during the announcement of the new partnership.

A historic team with historic ups and downs

Roush Racing entered Cup competition in 1988. It didn’t win that first year, but the company collected at least one checkered flag every year from 1989-2014 — except for 1996.

Roush was one of the first owners (along with Rick Hendrick) to appreciate the advantages of multi-car teams. By 2003, Roush Racing fielded five full-time teams. In 2005, all five Roush cars made the playoffs, accumulating 15 wins between them. Their dominance prompted NASCAR to limit teams to four cars. That limit remains today.

Roush sold half the team to Fenway Sports Group in 2007. The renamed Roush Fenway Racing team, however, never reached the highs of 2005 as the graph below shows.

A vertical bar chart showing the challenges Brad Keselowski has in driving RFK's revival

The 2015 season was Jack Roush’s first winless season since 1996. By the time Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won two races in 2017, RFR was down to two cars. The company had four consecutive winless seasons before Keselowski came on board.

Keselowski is a perfect choice to drive the RFK revival. After all, how many other NASCAR drivers run a 3D-printing business? Or worry about having enough properly educated workers for 21st century manufacturing jobs?

“I feel like I’m buying into a stock that is about to go up,” Keselowski said.

Keselowski’s record

The new RFK Racing team started off strong at Daytona, with Keselowski and teammate Chris Buescher each winning their Duels. During that week, NASCAR confiscated wheels from both drivers’ cars. Despite concerns about the team’s modifications, NASCAR ultimately levied no penalty. But after the fifth race of the year at Atlanta, NASCAR docked Keselowski 100 points for modifying single-source parts. Keselowski needed to win to make the playoffs.

It wasn’t Keselowski, but Buescher who won the first race under the new name. Unfortunately, Buescher’s Bristol win came too late to make the playoffs.

Keselowski finished 2022 ranked 24th, the worst finish since his first full-time season in 2010 when he finished 25th.

In the table below, I compare Keselowski’s finishes for his last two years at Team Penske to his finishes with RFK Racing in 2022 and the first 15 races of 2023.

Comparing Brad Keselowski's finishes for his last two years with Penske and his first two years (so far) with RFK RacingKeselowski’s lack of wins since switching teams is the most obvious difference; however, the falloff in top-five and top-10 finishes is even more significant. Keselowski was not only not winning races, he often wasn’t even in contention. In 2020, Keselowski finished 91.7% of all races on the lead lap. In his first year with RFK, that metric dropped to 61.1%.

On the positive side, his numbers this year look far better than his 2022 statistics. Keselowski finishes on the lead lap 86.7% of the time and already has as many top-10 finishes in 15 races as he had in all 36 races last year.

Keselowski’s top-five finish rate improved from 2.8% in 2022 to 20.0% this year. That’s still off his 2021 top-five-finish rate of 36.1%, but it’s a step forward.

I summarize the last four years of some of Keselowski’s loop data metrics in the table below.

A table comparing Brad Keselowski's attempt to drive RKF's revival with his last two years of loop data at Penske

In 2022, Keselowski was down between six to seven-and-a-half points in starting, finishing and average running positions relative to 2021. This year, he’s improved so that the difference is only in the 2.6 to 3.6-position range.

Two keys for continued improvement

Ford is playing catch-up this year, having won only two of 15 points-paying races. Ryan Blaney, who won one of those two races, has the highest average finishing position (11.3) among drivers with at least eight starts. Keselowski is 14th overall with a 15.7 average finishing position, and fourth best among Ford drivers. Buescher is finishing an average of 1.2 positions better than his teammate.

Kevin Harvick is the top-ranked Ford driver in average running position, coming in sixth overall. Keselowski is 13th overall in average running position and the fourth-best among the Ford drivers.

Average green-flag speed rank is the average of a driver’s rank in green-flag speed over all the races for which he was ranked. Harvick is the fastest Ford as measured by this metric, ranking eighth among all drivers who have completed at least eight races. Keselowski is the fifth-fastest Ford, but the 20th-ranked driver in average green-flag speed rank.

The other issue, however, is particular to Keselowski: He is involved in a lot of accidents. That’s not new with Keselowski’s move to RFK Racing. Since 2016, Keselowski has been involved in at least eight caution-causing incidents every year.

What may be new is that he has a harder time recovering from non-race-ending incidents now than he did at Penske.

In 2021, Keselowski was involved in 12 caution-causing accidents. Last year, it was 10 (nine accidents and a spin). He’s already been involved in 12 incidents this year, the most of any full-time driver.

Keselowski isn’t too concerned about accidents. He views them as a consequence of pushing a car to its limits. His competitors, however, have called him out for for his aggressive driving style.

Neither accidents nor Keselowski’s attitude toward them changed with his transition from Team Penske to RFK Racing.

Except now he’s the one paying for those wrecked cars.