NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 Best at Bristol in last three seasons

By Dan BeaverAug 16, 2018, 4:00 PM EDT

Photo by Jerry Markland/Getty Images

Is Bristol Motor Speedway a wild card?

An argument can be made either way with one driver exemplifying both.

Kyle Busch is arguably the best driver to ever compete at Bristol. In 2010 and 2011, he scored five consecutive wins in NASCAR’s three national series. Last August, he swept Bristol again – winning the Truck, Xfinity and Cup races. He won this spring’s Food City 500 and enters this weekend with back-to-back victories in Cup.

But he doesn’t have one of the 10 best average finishes during the past three years because he was involved in three consecutive accidents in 2016-17 – finishing 35th or worse each time.

Bristol is a rhythm track. That is one of the reasons Busch is so great, but the opposite side of that coin is that when a driver loses his rhythm, it can be difficult to get back.

NASCAR’s parity among most teams – prior to this season’s dominance of the Big 3 – has kept all but four drivers from accumulating a three-year average of better than 10th and that could make setting this week’s NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster a little tricky.

1. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 5.20)
Bristol has not always been one of Harvick’s better tracks. After getting off to a strong start in the early 2000s, he struggled through 13 races from 2009 through 2015 with only a single top 10. He finished second to Joey Logano in the 2015 night race and has not been outside the top 10 since.

2. Jimmie Johnson (three-year average: 9.00)
While this team fought to find the right setup on most tracks this spring, Johnson scored a solid third-place finish at Bristol. Except for one poor showing in spring 2016, he has finished 11th or better since the 2014 night race including a victory in the 2017 Food City 500.

2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (three-year average: 9.00)
Bristol may be Stenhouse’s final opportunity to score a victory and lock the No. 17 team in the playoffs. He has not yet won on the half-mile bullring, but has a pair of second-place finishes in 2014 and 2016 to indicate he is capable of doing so if the strategy plays out just right.

4. Joey Logano (three-year average: 9.40)
With a six-race streak of results 13th or better, Logano has been one of the most consistent drivers at Bristol in recent years. Only two of these were top-fives, but one earned maximum points when he won the 2015 night race. He won that same event in 2014, which suggests he has a great setup under the lights.

5. Denny Hamlin (three-year average: 10.00)
If one had to venture a guess, it would be that Hamlin will finish third this weekend. That is where he’s finished in each of the last three years during the August race, so the 14th earned by the No. 11 this spring at Bristol is less predictive than it otherwise might be.

6. Trevor Bayne (three-year average: 11.80)
Bayne is anything but a safe choice this week, but for fantasy NASCAR players who need to take a big risk, he could be the best differentiator. Entering this spring’s Food City 500, he had a four-race streak of results 12th or better. He was involved in a crash this spring and finished five laps off the pace in 24th, so he’s going to need a little luck this weekend.

7. Jamie McMurray (three-year average: 12.80)
McMurray will not be a good choice for this week’s Fantasy Live game, but he is a great utility driver in other games. In the last eight Bristol races, his best finish was an eighth, but before this spring, he had a perfect record of top-15s. He missed that mark in the Food City 500, but still finished in the middle of the pack with a 19th. He won’t earn maximum points, but he’s not going to cost a lot either.

8. Ryan Newman (three-year average: 13.40)
Newman is another great dark horse pick. He is not going to get a lot of attention before the race begins and is unlikely to get a top five, but the odds are in his favor that a top 10 is in the offing. In the last 18 races at Bristol, he has finished in the top 10 in 55.6 percent of the races and earned a top 15 72.2 percent of the time.

9. Clint Bowyer (three-year average: 13.60)
Bowyer has been stronger in the spring than fall in recent years. His last three attempts in that race ended in top 10s, while his August races under the lights have netted only one top 10 in the past five years. His overall average since 2011 has been 11.3 with only three results outside the top 15 in 13 races, so he should be on fantasy owners’ radar screens when practice begins.

10. Chase Elliott (three-year average: 14.60)
Elliott deserves attention less for his Bristol record than the recent momentum he brings to the weekend. In five starts on the bullring, he has only one top five and another top 10. Meanwhile, his last two attempts have ended in results outside the top 15. He has momentum on his side, however, with a four-race, top-10 streak to his credit that includes his first Cup win at Watkins Glen two weeks ago.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Joe Gibbs Racing or an affiliated driver has won the last six Bristol races for which time trials were run. Kyle Larson took the top spot in spring 2017 based on NASCAR’s rule book. JGR’s strength is a good indication that they will lead the field to green again this weekend. Busch has the advantage. If he shows speed in practice, last summer’s pole winner Erik Jones is also a good choice.

Segment Winners: In three races at Bristol since the advent of segment points, Brad Keselowski is the only driver to win a stage more than once. He swept the segments this spring. Those were the only times that Keselowski finished among the top 10 at the end of a segment, however, so it is difficult to make him a top choice to sweep the stages again this week. Larson and Johnson are the only drivers to score points in all six stages. The Gibbs’ guys Busch (earning points in 4 stages) and Jones (5) are not far behind and they have a lot more momentum on their side this week.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

Rick Hendrick hopes rough racing settles down after Chase Elliott suspension

Associated PressJun 8, 2023, 7:00 PM EDT

LE MANS, France (AP) — Rick Hendrick fully supports Chase Elliott as he returns from a one-race suspension for deliberately wrecking Denny Hamlin, but the team owner believes on-track aggression has gotten out of control this season and NASCAR sent a message by parking the superstar.

“Until something was done, I think that kind of rough racing was going to continue,” Hendrick told The Associated Press on Thursday.

Elliott missed last week’s race outside St. Louis as the five-time fan-voted most popular driver served a one-race suspension for retaliating against Hamlin in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The two had made contact several times, with Elliott hitting the wall before he deliberately turned left into Hamlin to wreck him.

Hamlin immediately called on NASCAR to suspend Elliott, which the sanctioning body did despite his star power and the effect his absence from races has on TV ratings. Elliott missed six races earlier this season with a broken leg suffered in a snowboarding crash and NASCAR lost roughly 500,000 viewers during his absence.

Hendrick, at the 24 Hours of Le Mans with NASCAR’s special Garage 56 project, told the AP he understood the suspension. NASCAR last year suspended Bubba Wallace one race for intentionally wrecking Kyle Larson, another Hendrick driver.

“Pushing and shoving, it’s a fine line, and when someone puts you out of the race, you get roughed up, emotions take over and you react,” Hendrick said. “I think maybe guys will run each other a little bit cleaner moving forward. “We understand the suspension, and nobody really likes to have to go through that, but you just do it and move on.”

Hendrick said he believes drivers have gotten far too aggressive with the second-year Next Gen car, which has not only tightened the field but is a durable vehicle that can withstand bumping and banging. Contact that used to end a driver’s day now barely leaves a dent.

It’s led to drivers being more forceful and, in Hendrick’s opinion, too many incidents of drivers losing their cool.

“There’s rubbing. But if you just harass people by running them up into the wall, every time you get to them, you get tired of it,” Hendrick said. “And that’s what so many of them do to cause accidents, but then they don’t get in the accident themselves.

“I think everybody understands the rules. But you’ve got an awful lot of tension and when you’re out their racing like that, and you are almost to the finish, and somebody just runs over you for no reason, I think the cars are so close and it’s so hard to pass, they get frustrated.”

Elliott, with seven missed races this season, is ranked 27th in the standings heading into Sunday’s road course race in Sonoma, California. He’s been granted two waivers by NASCAR to remain eligible for the playoffs, but the 2020 champion needs to either win a race or crack the top 16 in standings to make the field.

An outstanding road course racer with seven wins across several tracks, Elliott will be motivated to get his first win of the season Sunday at Sonoma, one of the few road courses on the schedule where he’s winless.

Hendrick said when he spoke to Elliott he urged him to use caution moving forward.

“I just said ‘Hey, we’ve got to be careful with that,’” Hendrick said. “But I support him, I really do support him. You get roughed up and it ruins your day, you know, you let your emotions take over.”

Concussion-like symptoms sideline Noah Gragson

By Dustin LongJun 8, 2023, 3:46 PM EDT

Noah Gragson will not compete in Sunday’s Cup race at Sonoma Raceway because of concussion-like symptoms he experienced this week after his crash at WWT Raceway, Legacy MC announced Thursday.

Grant Enfinger will drive the No. 42 in place of Gragson.

“Noah’s health is the highest of priorities and we commend him for making the decision to sit out this weekend,” said team co-owners Maury Gallagher and Jimmie Johnson in a statement from the team. “We are appreciative that Grant was available and willing to step in since the Truck Series is off this weekend.”

The team states that Gragson was evaluated and released from the infield care center after his crash last weekend at WWT Raceway. He began to experience concussion-like symptoms mid-week and is seeking treatment.

Gragson is 32nd in the points in his rookie Cup season.

Enfinger is available with the Craftsman Truck Series off this weekend. Enfinger is coming off a victory in last weekend’s Truck race at WWT Raceway for GMS Racing, which is owned by Gallagher. That was Enfinger’s second Truck win of the season.

NASCAR implements safety changes after Talladega crash

By Dustin LongJun 8, 2023, 1:05 PM EDT

NASCAR is implementing changes to Cup cars that strengthen the right side door area and soften the frontal area after reviewing the crash between Kyle Larson and Ryan Preece at Talladega Superspeedway in April.

The changes are to be in place for the July 9 race weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Larson and Preece were uninjured in the vicious crash late in the race at Talladega. Larson’s car was turned and slid down the track to the apron before coming back up in traffic. Preece’s car slammed into the right side door area of Larson’s car.

Dr. John Patalak, NASCAR vice president of safety engineering, said the difference in velocity of the two cars at the time of impact was 59 mph.

“It’s pretty hard to find that on the racetrack normally,” Patalak told reporters Thursday during a briefing.

The severe impact moved a right side door bar on Larson’s car. NASCAR announced last month that it was allowing teams to add six right side door bar gussets to prevent the door bars from buckling in such an impact.

Thursday, NASCAR announced additional changes to the cars. The changes come after computer simulations and crash testing.

NASCAR is mandating:

Steel plate welded to the right side door bars
Front clips will be softened
Front bumper strut softening
Front ballast softening
Modified cross brace

Patalak said that NASCAR had been working on changes to the car since last year and did crash testing in January at the Transportation Research Center in East Liberty, Ohio. NASCAR did more work after that crash test.

As for the changes to the front of the car, Patalak said: “From an engineering standpoint we’re reducing the buckling strength of those individual parts and pieces. The simplified version is we are increasing the amount of crush that the front clip will be capable of. That’s all an effort to reduce the accelerations that the center section and driver will be exposed to during these frontal crashes.”

Adding the steel plate to the door bars is meant to strengthen that area to prevent any type of intrusion or buckling of the door bars in a similar type of crash.

Patalak also said that NASCAR inspected the car of Blaine Perkins that barrel rolled during the Xfinity race at Talladega in April. Patalak said that NASCAR consulted with Dr. James Raddin, Jr., who was one of the four authors of the Earnhardt investigation report in 2001 for the sanctioning body, in that incident.

Dr. Diandra: Brad Keselowski driving RFK Racing revival

By Diandra Leslie-PeleckyJun 8, 2023, 12:00 PM EDT

Brad Keselowski surprised many when he didn’t re-sign with Team Penske in 2021. Penske was his home since 2010, and the team who helped him to a Cup Series championship in 2012. But Jack Roush offered Keselowski something Roger Penske couldn’t — ownership stake in the team.

Keselowski knew an RFK Racing revival would be an challenge, but also that he was prepared for it.

“I’ve been studying my whole life for this moment, and I’m ready for the test,” Keselowski said during the announcement of the new partnership.

A historic team with historic ups and downs

Roush Racing entered Cup competition in 1988. It didn’t win that first year, but the company collected at least one checkered flag every year from 1989-2014 — except for 1996.

Roush was one of the first owners (along with Rick Hendrick) to appreciate the advantages of multi-car teams. By 2003, Roush Racing fielded five full-time teams. In 2005, all five Roush cars made the playoffs, accumulating 15 wins between them. Their dominance prompted NASCAR to limit teams to four cars. That limit remains today.

Roush sold half the team to Fenway Sports Group in 2007. The renamed Roush Fenway Racing team, however, never reached the highs of 2005 as the graph below shows.

The 2015 season was Jack Roush’s first winless season since 1996. By the time Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won two races in 2017, RFR was down to two cars. The company had four consecutive winless seasons before Keselowski came on board.

Keselowski is a perfect choice to drive the RFK revival. After all, how many other NASCAR drivers run a 3D-printing business? Or worry about having enough properly educated workers for 21st century manufacturing jobs?

“I feel like I’m buying into a stock that is about to go up,” Keselowski said.

Keselowski’s record

The new RFK Racing team started off strong at Daytona, with Keselowski and teammate Chris Buescher each winning their Duels. During that week, NASCAR confiscated wheels from both drivers’ cars. Despite concerns about the team’s modifications, NASCAR ultimately levied no penalty. But after the fifth race of the year at Atlanta, NASCAR docked Keselowski 100 points for modifying single-source parts. Keselowski needed to win to make the playoffs.

It wasn’t Keselowski, but Buescher who won the first race under the new name. Unfortunately, Buescher’s Bristol win came too late to make the playoffs.

Keselowski finished 2022 ranked 24th, the worst finish since his first full-time season in 2010 when he finished 25th.

In the table below, I compare Keselowski’s finishes for his last two years at Team Penske to his finishes with RFK Racing in 2022 and the first 15 races of 2023.

Keselowski’s lack of wins since switching teams is the most obvious difference; however, the falloff in top-five and top-10 finishes is even more significant. Keselowski was not only not winning races, he often wasn’t even in contention. In 2020, Keselowski finished 91.7% of all races on the lead lap. In his first year with RFK, that metric dropped to 61.1%.

On the positive side, his numbers this year look far better than his 2022 statistics. Keselowski finishes on the lead lap 86.7% of the time and already has as many top-10 finishes in 15 races as he had in all 36 races last year.

Keselowski’s top-five finish rate improved from 2.8% in 2022 to 20.0% this year. That’s still off his 2021 top-five-finish rate of 36.1%, but it’s a step forward.

I summarize the last four years of some of Keselowski’s loop data metrics in the table below.

In 2022, Keselowski was down between six to seven-and-a-half points in starting, finishing and average running positions relative to 2021. This year, he’s improved so that the difference is only in the 2.6 to 3.6-position range.

Two keys for continued improvement

Ford is playing catch-up this year, having won only two of 15 points-paying races. Ryan Blaney, who won one of those two races, has the highest average finishing position (11.3) among drivers with at least eight starts. Keselowski is 14th overall with a 15.7 average finishing position, and fourth best among Ford drivers. Buescher is finishing an average of 1.2 positions better than his teammate.

Kevin Harvick is the top-ranked Ford driver in average running position, coming in sixth overall. Keselowski is 13th overall in average running position and the fourth-best among the Ford drivers.

Average green-flag speed rank is the average of a driver’s rank in green-flag speed over all the races for which he was ranked. Harvick is the fastest Ford as measured by this metric, ranking eighth among all drivers who have completed at least eight races. Keselowski is the fifth-fastest Ford, but the 20th-ranked driver in average green-flag speed rank.

The other issue, however, is particular to Keselowski: He is involved in a lot of accidents. That’s not new with Keselowski’s move to RFK Racing. Since 2016, Keselowski has been involved in at least eight caution-causing incidents every year.

What may be new is that he has a harder time recovering from non-race-ending incidents now than he did at Penske.

In 2021, Keselowski was involved in 12 caution-causing accidents. Last year, it was 10 (nine accidents and a spin). He’s already been involved in 12 incidents this year, the most of any full-time driver.

Keselowski isn’t too concerned about accidents. He views them as a consequence of pushing a car to its limits. His competitors, however, have called him out for for his aggressive driving style.

Neither accidents nor Keselowski’s attitude toward them changed with his transition from Team Penske to RFK Racing.

Except now he’s the one paying for those wrecked cars.

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A historic team with historic ups and downs

Keselowski’s record

Two keys for continued improvement

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