NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 best at New Hampshire in last three seasons

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Flat tracks are among the most predictable in NASCAR and it seems that the shorter the distance, the more likely drivers are to find their rhythm. For the purpose of handicapping this week’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster, the tracks used as a comparative for New Hampshire Motor Speedway include ISM Raceway (Phoenix), Richmond Raceway, and Martinsville Speedway.

Kyle Busch has been the master of those tracks in recent years with 12 top fives in his last 18 starts. He’s finished outside the top 10 only twice. In that same span, eight drivers have finished among the top 10 in more than half of their attempts. In terms of top 15s, 17 drivers have a better than .500 average since the beginning of 2016 and that allows fantasy players to narrow the field considerably.

1. Matt Kenseth (three-year average: 2.83)
This week on NASCAR America, Parker Kligerman said that Roush Fenway Racing is using the No. 6 to test unproven parts and pieces in an effort to get Ricky Stenhouse Jr. into the playoffs. If that is true, starting Kenseth comes with greater than average risk.

2. Daniel Suarez (three-year average: 7.00 in two starts)
The short, flat tracks require rhythm to get around quickly. When a driver sweeps the top 10 on a minimally-banked course as rookie, it often means he is going to be strong there throughout his career. Suarez finished sixth in the spring and eighth in the fall at New Hampshire.

3. Brad Keselowski (three-year average: 7.67)
It has been more than six years since Keselowski finished outside the top 15 at New Hampshire. If nothing goes wrong with his car, he is likely to extend that streak because all but three of his last 13 races ended inside the top 10 – including a victory in 2014.

4. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 8.50)
Truex may still be looking for his first win at New Hampshire, but he has a better three-year average than Kevin Harvick or Busch. Along with Kenseth and Kyle Larson, he was one of three drivers last year to sweep the top five – and coming off a dominant win at Kentucky Speedway, he will challenge for the win this week in an effort to tie Harvick and Busch with five victories apiece.

5. Denny Hamlin (three-year average: 8.83)
Hamlin is one of the drivers that must be considered every time NASCAR goes to a flat track. At the height of his career, he would regularly string top fives together on this course type. Lately, he’s been a little more prone to scoring results in the high single digits and low-teens, but he’s still a good value if he fits the right niche on one’s roster.

6. Kyle Busch (three-year average: 10.03)
Busch’s three-year average is marred by an accident in 2015 that cost him 38 laps. If one removes that outlier from his results, he has a 4.33 average over the past five years with wins in spring 2015 and fall 2017. There is no sign that he will slow down this week and a top five is virtually assured.

7. Joey Logano (three-year average: 11.33)
From fall 2014 through spring 2016, Logano scored four consecutive top fives that included one win. In the three races since that streak ended, he has one top 10 and an 11th, but what really hurt his average was a broken transmission in this race last year.

8. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 11.67)
Harvick is another driver for whom his average can be deceiving. An accident midway through last year’s ISM Connect 300 and a mistake on fuel calculations in 2015 dropped him outside of the top 20 twice in the past three years, but his other four efforts have all been top fives with a victory in fall 2016.

9. Jimmie Johnson (three-year average: 12.00)
It is hard to tell because he is still finishing outside of the top 10, but Johnson is slowly improving. That is encouraging on a track like New Hampshire where the driver is a bigger part of the equation than he is on an unrestricted, intermediate speedway. Johnson could be a great dark horse in the Foxwoods 301.

10. Kyle Larson (three-year average: 13.17)
Larson has been hit or miss at New Hampshire, but when he finds the target, he is close to the bullseye. In his rookie season, Laron finished third and second. Last year, he swept the runner-up position and with a car that is now set up to run the lower groove, he should challenge for the win.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Busch and Truex won last year’s poles at New Hampshire and the odds are good one of the Big 3 will lead the field to green this week as well. Suarez could be a surprising dark horse, however, because Carl Edwards swept the pole in 2015 in this car and grabbed another in 2016.

Segment Winners: In the past two years, four drivers have dominated the segment wins on minimally-banked flat tracks one mile or less in length. Busch, Truex and Logano have four stage wins apiece. Keselowski has three. The tiebreaker goes to Busch, however, because he has earned 146 points on short, flat tracks compared to Keselowski’s 114.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

Chase Elliott pleased by ‘best shot to win to date’ but knows work remains

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MARTINSVILLE, Va. – He was the only driver to outduel the dominant No. 2 Ford of race winner Brad Keselowski. He had his best shot to win a race in more than five months. He fortified the allegiance of fans at the NASCAR Cup series’ shortest track, which already has been a special place early in his career.

Ultimately, though, Chase Elliott knew a runner-up finish Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, one of only six short-track races on the circuit, will have a limited shelf life.

Hendrick Motorsports still must prove it can excel at the larger tracks such as Texas Motor Speedway that make up the bulk of the schedule and play a large role in determining the championship.

“From here? No,” Elliott said with a smile and a slight chuckle when asked if there were any momentum that could carry over to the 1.5-mile speedway that’s next on the schedule. “No.”

How about fueling some optimism that his No. 9 Chevrolet will be faster at Texas?

“I sure hope so,” he said.

There should at least be a more positive vibe in this week’s team debriefs after Elliott led 49 laps for his first top five since his Oct. 21 victory at Kansas Speedway. It also was Hendrick’s first top five of 2019 through six races (the longest the organization has gone without a top five to start a season since 2000).

It was only the second race of the past 10 that the No. 9 Chevrolet has led.

“We had a really, really solid car and this was the best shot we had to win to date this season, so when you have cars like that and performances like we did today, you really need to capitalize,” Elliott said. “And obviously with our struggle last week at Fontana (where he finished 11th), that was a bummer, so to come back and be able to run inside the top five all day long and be as competitive as the winner of the race was an improvement.

“And ultimately this is an important racetrack so coming back here in the fall, hopefully we can run like we did today, maybe a little better, and hopefully we’re still part of the deal to make it matter.”

Keselowski took the lead for the final time when his pit crew got him out ahead of Elliott under caution on Lap 374. He never passed Elliott under green, and Keselowski figured he wouldn’t after Elliott took the lead from him with 175 laps remaining shortly after a restart.

“I thought Chase was probably the best car most of the day,” said Keselowski, who led 446 of 500 laps. “I thought that might be the end of our day, but I was able to learn a few things from him and kind of dissect his strengths and weaknesses and make some adjustments of our own and come back out and be a little bit better for it. Pit crew did an excellent job gaining or retaining our track position all day, which is critical here at this racetrack.

“We were able to keep our track position, and that was so, so key to being able to win today because I think Chase, if he’d have been out front that run, he would have drove away from the field with what I saw from his car.”

Brad Keselowski held off Chase Elliott for his second win of the season. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Elliott slipped to third behind Keselowski and Kyle Busch on his last stop under yellow. He made a nifty move to retake second on the outside after Busch ran into Keselowski and slowed with 43 laps remaining.

He was making ground in the final 10 laps, but aerodynamics (rarely a factor at Martinsville but in play because of this year’s high downforce) seemed to factor into his inability to reach Keselowski’s bumper.

“I tried to root him off the bottom at the beginning of the run,” Elliott said. “That was probably my best shot. I felt like I was a little better than him taking off. Then I thought he got a little better than me through the midstage and then I feel like we kind of evened out.

“That one run I was able to get by him, it was definitely a slight advantage to being out front. Moved up with about five (laps) to go, was making a little time. But obviously not enough time and was just trying to get back to his bumper. Thought maybe I could root him out of the way. It was going to be really hard to drive up next to him and pass him. I was just going to have to get to his bumper and play some games and hope it went my way.”

At least there was hope of being in the game when NASCAR returns to Southwest Virginia in seven months for the opener of the Round of 8, which Elliott nearly won in 2017.

“Have to just improve and when we come back here,” he said. “This is an important race if you’re in the hunt, so hopefully we are.”

Brad Keselowski says ‘wins are huge’ in keeping, retaining sponsors

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Brad Keselowski was thrilled with his second Cup victory of the season, but the victory was more meaningful because the car’s sponsor, Reese/Draw Tite, serves as a primary sponsor for only two races.

“We’re fighting so hard to keep sponsors on our car and we have some gaps (in 2020) to fill there,” said Keselowski, whose other victory this season was in Atlanta with sponsor Autotrader.

“When we win with some of those partners, it’s a really big deal for us,” Keselowski added.

Reese/Draw Tite will be back as the primary sponsor on Keselowski’s car later this season. The brands were on Keselowski’s car twice in 2018 — at the first Martinsville race and Richmond playoff race.

Reese/Draw Tite sponsored Keselowski’s Truck Series team beginning in 2012. Reese/Draw Tite signed a multi-year sponsor deal with Team Penske in 2018.

“The wins are huge,” Keselowski said in attracting and retaining sponsors. “You have to win. The market loves winners, as it should. That’s what you would like it to be. You would like it to be about winning and sponsors that are connected to that. In my mind, that’s the way it should be.

“I didn’t come into this sport with a name that was just going to give me sponsors and the biggest sponsors out of the gate. With that in mind, our team has to win. (Car owner Roger Penske) is great because he’s so smart with these business-to-business deals. But even that, that’s really hard on him, and he doesn’t deserve that full burden. He’s worked his butt off, and he shouldn’t have to be in every board meeting and trying to solidify the deals, and I recognize that for him, and I’m proud of the efforts that he does put in, and the last thing I want to do is make him do more of them, right?

“So with that in mind, I hope that we can continue to attract the high‑level sponsors we need to be competitive at this level, and the best way I know how to do that is wins like today.”

Keselowski, who led 446 of 500 laps Sunday, says he plays a role in helping with sponsorship.

“It would be a lot easier to just be the race car driver, but I accept the fact that if we want to have the funding we need to be able to compete with the Toyotas specifically, who are certainly very high up on the funding level, we have to generate those revenues and those funds, and that’s the way we’re going to get back to Victory Lane,” Keselowski said. “You need that to be able to afford the engineering, to be able to afford the pit crew and still pay me to drive. So winning is very, very important.”

Keselowski also said he has five unfunded races to fill in the Xfinity Series this season that he hopes to be able to run but won’t without sponsors.

Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin salvage top 10s after pit road penalties

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MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Clint Bowyer places at least some of the blame on his two pit road speeding penalties Sunday at Martinsville Speedway with what happened Saturday at the half-mile short track.

Bowyer, who placed seventh in a failed attempt to defend his STP 500 win, would like better pit road conditions to work with.

“It’s so hard to practice pit road speed,” a dispirited Bowyer said on pit road after his second top 10 of the season. “You’ve got (Gander Outdoors) Trucks on pit road when we’re trying to practice that. I’m not making any excuses. When you’re trying to pinch it for every little thing out of it. It’s hard this week to practice pit road speed because of all the stuff on pit road.”

After he placed sixth in Stage 1 and eighth in Stage 2, Bowyer’s No. 14 was caught speeding the first time on Lap 314 after he pitted from third place. Bowyer was able to make it up to 13th in the next 60 laps.

Then on his next trip to pit road, Bowyer was again dinged for speeding.

“I guess we need to get our stuff together on being on the same page with that pit road stuff,” Bowyer said. “That’s such an important thing, such a big part of this style of racing where track position is everything. We push it to the limit.”

Before he pitted for a final time with just under 55 laps to go, Bowyer was told by crew chief Mike Bugarewicz they had figured out he wasn’t running close enough to the pit wall in the section the penalties occurred.

Bowyer didn’t speed and restarted eighth.

The Stewart-Haas Racing driver claimed his first top 10 since he placed fifth at Atlanta.

“I don’t think anybody had anything for (race winner Brad Keselowski),” Bowyer said. “But I think we were a top-three car for sure. We just kept beating ourselves.”

Bowyer wasn’t the only driver to salvage a decent finish after a pit road penalty.

After an uncontrolled tire penalty on Lap 265, Denny Hamlin roared back to finish fifth for the second time in the last three races.

“We lost a lot of spots on pit road even before that, and then just went to the back like we do most races and came back to fifth,” Hamlin said. “When you don’t have the best car, you have to pretty much execute perfectly. We didn’t, but it wouldn’t have mattered because the best car didn’t falter.”
Hamlin had stage finishes of fourth and third before the pit penalty occurred
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has two consecutive top fives at Martinsville and 14 in his 27 career starts.
“We kind of got back to where we kind of belonged, and that was the end of it,” Hamlin said. “We have to get a little better with the handling to handle right where (Keselowski is) at.”

Results, points after Martinsville Cup race

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Brad Keselowski scored his second victory of the season, dominating Sunday’s Cup race at Martinsville Speedway.

Chase Elliott finished a season-high second. Kyle Busch finished third and was followed by Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin, who had to overcome a penalty for an uncontrolled tire on pit road.

Click here for race results

Points

Kyle Busch leads the points and also has the most playoff points after six races. He has 273 points. Denny Hamlin is next at 252 points.

Busch has 14 playoff points. Brad Keselowski is next with 12 playoff points.

Click here for points report