NASCAR America Fantasy League: 10 Best at Charlotte in last three years

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The Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is the longest Cup race on the schedule and can be one of the most challenging. The extra 100 miles over the length of most of NASCAR’s endurance races puts an added strain on drivers as well as the parts and pieces of their car.

The added distance can also change a team’s strategy. The 2011, 2015 and 2017 races were decided by fuel mileage. Two tire stops, green-white-checkered finishes and other special circumstances have also changed the late running order, which can make this one of the least predictable events on the calendar.

This is a good week to take some risks on dark horses when setting the NASCAR America Fantasy Live roster and fantasy players want to choose from drivers with a proven record of success.

1. Martin Truex Jr. (three-year average: 9.67)
Truex has been overshadowed by Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch this year because he does not have the same number of wins. Even so, he has seven top fives in 12 races this year, which has made him extremely fantasy relevant. He’s been almost perfect at Charlotte in the past three years with two victories and five top fives in six starts.

2. Daniel Suarez (three-year average: 8.50 in 2 starts)
Suarez has only two starts at Charlotte, but he came close to sweeping the top 10. By finishing 11th in last year’s Coke 600 and sixth in the Bank of America 500, he has shown an affinity for this track that was confirmed by a second-place finish in the All-Star race. NASCAR America Analysts Jeff Burton and Landon Cassill thinks that gives him added confidence that could result in another strong run.

3. Denny Hamlin (three-year average: 9.17)
Only three drivers swept the top 10 at Charlotte last year: Truex, Harvick and Hamlin. Finishing fifth in the spring and fourth in the fall, Hamlin’s streak is significant because it backs up a near-perfect record since the end of 2010. Beginning with a fourth-place finish in the Bank of America 500 that year, Hamlin has scored 13 top 10s in his last 15 races on this track.

4. Kurt Busch (three-year average: 9.50)
Busch entered last fall’s Bank of America 500 with a five-race streak of top-10 finishes. He left his fantasy owners disappointed with a 22nd in that event, but he has a better-than-average chance of starting a new streak this week. In 12 races this year, he has six top 10s, another pair of 11ths and a 14th. If he misses the single digits, it is not going to be by much.

5. Kevin Harvick (three-year average: 10.33)
If not for a blown engine on lap 155 of the scheduled 334-lap distance in the 2016 Bank of America 500, Harvick would most likely enter the weekend with a 10-race, top-10 streak. If one mentally discounts that finish, Harvick boasts an average finish of 3.8 since the start of the 2013 season. Couple that with his current momentum and there is no reason that a player should not build their lineup around the No. 4.

6. Matt Kenseth (three-year average: 11.67)
Last week’s KC Masterpiece 400 at Kansas Speedway was brutal for Kenseth. He didn’t expect much in his return, but one has to suspect he thought the car would perform better than it did. The good news is that he has a feel for Charlotte — a track on which he scored his first Cup victory — and he has an extra 100 miles to figure things out what’s wrong with the No. 6 this week.

7. Erik Jones (three-year average: 12.00 in two starts)
There are a couple of reasons to recommend Jones this week. His seventh-place finish in last year’s Coke 600 was an impressive debut on a tough track. More important, he has been great on similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks since finishing 10th in last fall’s AAA Texas 500. In his last five attempts on this track type, he has a worst finish of 11th and an average of eighth.

8. Jamie McMurray (three-year average: 12.83)
Nearly every time he makes the top 10 list, McMurray’s consistency is noted. He rarely posts such remarkable numbers that everyone expects him to land with the leaders, but once the checkers wave, no one is ever surprised to see him in the front half of the pack. McMurray has not finished outside the top 20 at Charlotte in 11 races although he came close on a few occasions with four 19th-place results.

9. Brad Keselowski (three-year average: 13.67)
Keselowski may be one bad finish away from falling out of the lead pack. He swept the top 10 in both 2015 and 2016, but crashed on lap 19 of last year’s 600 and could manage to record only a 15th in the fall. With only one top five in his last eight Charlotte races, Keselowski is a questionable fantasy value.

10. Austin Dillon (three-year average: 14.00)
Dillon won last year’s Coke 600 after gambling on fuel. In the fall 2016 Bank of America 500, he finished 32nd. Fantasy owners can toss out the high and the low and are left with an average finish of 12.75. And once the player gets rid of the peak and valley, they are left with a consistent pattern of results of seventh to 16th. Chances are good that is where he is going to finish again this week.

Bonus Picks

Pole Winner: Picking the pole winner has become a difficult proposition. The standard speedsters this year have been Harvick, Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson. Keep those drivers on your radar screen, and make the final decision based on Thursday practice.

Segment Winners: This is a good week to vote the straight Harvick ticket. When he finds the right groove, he is hard to pass and even though the All-Star Race was contested under a different rules package. The strength he showed in it is going to transfer to Sunday’s Cup race.

For more Fantasy NASCAR coverage, check out Rotoworld.com and follow Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) on Twitter.

Austin Dillon’s car fails pre-race inspection, will start from rear

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Bristol, Tenn. — Austin Dillon‘s No. 3 Chevrolet failed pre-race inspection three times Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Dillon will start from the rear and his car chief, Greg Ebert, has been ejected from the event.

Dillon had qualified 18th.

Dillon will have to serve a 30-minute practice hold in two weeks at Darlington Raceway.

Kyle Larson seeks turnaround at ‘by far my favorite racetrack’

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BRISTOL, Tenn. – With his team in a mini-slump in midsummer, Kyle Larson is back in his happy place, and the Chip Ganassi Racing driver wouldn’t mind returning more often.

“I love racing here,” Larson said Thursday at Bristol Motor Speedway. “I wish we could race here weekly. I think our sport would be in a good spot if we could.

“I didn’t watch a ton of NASCAR growing up, but I’d never miss a Bristol race. If you were to ask me what Bristol race stands out, I couldn’t tell you. I just loved watching Bristol. It was always a lot of fun. Ever since they added the progressive banking, it’s been a lot better, too, as far as style of racing goes. It’s by far my favorite NASCAR track.”

The love of Bristol grew only stronger Friday night as he won the Food City 300 and scored his first victory in 18 Cup and Xfinity starts at the 0.533-mile oval.

Larson will be trying for his first win in NASCAR’s premier series at the track – and his first in Cup this season – while starting from the pole position in tonight’s race.

A victory would be a welcome result for Larson’s team, which is virtually locked into the playoffs but has only two top 10s in six races since his memorable runner-up finish to Kyle Busch at Chicagoland Speedway.

While Chevrolet teams Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing seem to have gotten faster in recent weeks, Larson’s No. 42 Camaro seems to have tailed off slightly after easily being the best Chevy in the first half of the season.

“I don’t know where we might be off,” he said. “Nobody really honestly knows where other teams have gotten speed from, so we’re working on all areas, really, I’m pretty sure, to try and get faster. We have moments where we’re really fast, but I would say we’re just a little inconsistent from track to track.

“You look at last year, we were good everywhere. This year, we’re good at our good tracks. Not as good at the tracks that we have struggled at years prior.”

But what about starting and finishing 17th last Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, where he won three consecutive races from 2016-17?

A loose wheel after his first pit stop mired Larson in traffic and out of sequence, and then contact on a restart hampered into using an older set of tires for the last run of the race.

“It just snowballed into a bad run where I felt like we were going to have a shot to run top 3 or 5, but it just doesn’t show for it, and other people look at it as we just ran bad all day,” he said. “If you look at lap times, we were running some of the fastest laps of the race, just buried in traffic. I feel like we’re not that bad. We just had a little bit of a bad luck that cost us finishes we deserved the last few weeks.”

The urgency to maximize his speed stems more from being well positioned in the playoffs than making the 16-driver field. Larson is one of three provisionally qualified who have no playoff points yet.

“That part is a little frustrating,” he said. “It makes you more nervous when it comes to the playoffs, but the good thing is there’s been three guys taking up all the playoff points, so the other ones don’t have a whole lot, either, but every point matters.

“You look at it as you need to win some stages and win a race, but I also view Bristol as being my best opportunity to get some playoff points. I feel like we can win both stages and win the race. Not easily but this is our best shot. That five to seven points would be huge.”

And after getting bumped from the lead by race winner Kyle Busch at Bristol in April, Larson has earned some leeway in playing rough – not that he plans to use it.

He prefers the “options” afforded by the 2007 addition of progressive banking (which was retrofitted in 2012 in a manner that often makes the top groove the fastest).

“If there was progressive banking 20 years ago, the racing would have been a lot better back then,” he said. “I’m not a fan of the bump and run. I’m just a fan of Bristol.

“I’d much rather see two to three wide racing at Bristol than single file. I think the racing is really good, and that’s why I love coming here to race.”

Staff picks for Bristol night race

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Here’s who NBC’s NASCAR writers think will triumph tonight under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway (6:46 p.m. ET on NBCSN).

Dustin Long

Ryan Blaney gets the win he should have had at this track in April.

Nate Ryan

Kyle Larson. On Thursday, he told reporters he was convinced he could sweep both stages and win. On Friday, he took a big step toward convincing the rest of us.

Daniel McFadin

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wins in his last good shot to get into the playoffs with a victory.

Dan Beaver

Really? I’m the only one going with Kyle Busch? I just hope everyone in my fantasy NASCAR league ignores him as well.

Trophy for Charlotte Roval race revealed

Dustin Long
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BRISTOL, Tenn. — The trophy for the Sept. 30 Cup race on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval was revealed Saturday prior to the night race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The trophy is inspired by Bank of America, which sponsors the 400-kilometer race.

It is designed to resemble the Bank of America building in downtown Charlotte, North Carolina.

The track also announced a Sammy Hagar concert the night before the race. The “Rock the ROVAL” concert will be held at 9 p.m. ET on pit road.

 

Photo: Daniel McFadin
(Photo by Davis Turner/Getty Images)