For Truex, Busch and Harvick, they have a chance to join Jimmie Johnson as the only active drivers with multiple titles. One of them would become the 16th Cup driver to win multiple championships.
For Hamlin, he could finally lose his title of the winningest active driver without a championship on his record.
This will be the last scheduled championship weekend in Miami after it has hosted the event since 2002. Next year it will move to ISM Raceway near Phoenix.
Here’s a guide to the final weekend of the NASCAR season:
FUN WITH NUMBERS
The Championship 4 is three against one on multiple levels.
As mentioned, it will feature three past champions going against Hamlin, who will try to win his first title in his 14th year of full-time Cup competition. In his only other Championship 4 appearance in 2014, Hamlin finished third.
Three Toyotas from Joe Gibbs Racing will be pitted against one Ford, Stewart-Haas Racing’s No. 4 driven by Harvick.
“(We need to) beat three Gibbs cars. Go faster than them,” Harvick said. “We’re going to do everything just like we’ve done all year.”
Three drivers in their 30s – Busch (34 years old), Truex (39) and Hamlin (38) – are going against Harvick, whose 43.
Speaking of ages….
Like everyone else, Hamlin’s birthday falls on the same date every year – Nov. 18.
This year it falls on the day after Hamlin could claim his first title.
“Homestead is always my birthday weekend,” Hamlin said. “I want to have two reasons to celebrate, not just one.”
Hamlin recalled the last time he came this close to a title.
“In 2010 I shut everyone out,” Hamlin said. “Like I didn’t do any of the birthday stuff. I didn’t hang out with anyone. I really didn’t respond to calls or texts or anything like that. But I’m not going to be that way I don’t think this time around because I just am not going to change who I am.”
Should he win the championship by winning Sunday’s race, he’d earn his 38th Cup Series victory on his last day of being 38 years old.
Also, a win Sunday would be Hamlin’s seventh of the season. That would make him the winningest Daytona 500 winner in a season since Jeff Gordon had seven victories in 1999.
RACE WINNER = CHAMPION
This weekend marks the sixth edition of the Cup championship race under the elimination playoff format.
While the championship is simply awarded to the highest-finishing driver out of the Championship 4, each year the champion has won the race.
2014 – Kevin Harvick (led final eight laps)
2015 – Kyle Busch (led eight of final 10 laps)
2016 – Jimmie Johnson (only led final three laps as part of an overtime finish)
2017 – Martin Truex Jr. (led final 51 laps)
2018 – Joey Logano (led final 12 laps after passing Truex)
Should Busch win on Sunday, he would end a 21-race winless streak.
“It’s obviously a great opportunity to be able to go race for a championship, and that’s what this format is,” Busch said. “It doesn’t mean a whole lot to make it to the Championship 4 if you don’t win it. You know, it’s all reset to zero. There are four of us who go for winner-take-all at Homestead. … It’s what your whole season comes down to.”
ONE LAST MONSTER MASH
Sunday’s race will be the last that Monster Energy serves as the title sponsor for the Cup Series.
Starting in 2020, the Cup Series will movie to a tiered sponsor system with no title sponsor.
The Cup Series has had a title sponsor since 1971 when Winston entered the role it held until 2003.
Nextel owned the naming rights from 2004-07. Sprint then held the rights through 2016 with Monster taking over in 2017.
RUNNING OUT OF TIME
Three drivers who won races in 2018 have a last shot to earn their first victory of this season.
Both have said they plan to continue racing but suggest it could be in other forms beyond Cup.
Menard, the 2011 Brickyard 400 winner, will make his 471st Cup start Sunday. While he did not have as much success as others, he’ll be remembered for his quiet demeanor, abstinence from social media and devoted fan base.
Ragan, who won at Daytona in 2011 and Talladega in 2013, will make his 470th Cup start Sunday.
Both began running full-time in 2007 in a rookie class that included Juan Pablo Montoya and AJ Allmendinger. Montoya won rookie of the year honors.
Ragan said he’s looked at schedules for ARCA and some Late Model races across the country. He also said there are plans for him to drive the Next Gen car next year in some testing.
“Ford Motor Company has been a really good partner of mine and a supporter of my career since day one, and so I’m working with those guys on how I can help the big picture from Ford Performance and how we can work on next year and the Next Generation car as it rolls out,” Ragan said.
Ragan will be driving a throwback paint scheme on his No. 38 Ford. It will look like the car Ragan won with at Talladega with Front Row Motorsports.
This weekend will be the last for a handful of drivers in their current rides before they transition to a new team, while others are still without announced plans for beyond Sunday.
Leavine Family Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto will replace Menard in the Wood Brothers’ No. 21 Ford.
Xfinity Series driver Christopher Bell will succeed DiBenedetto in LFR’s No. 95 Toyota.
Rookie Daniel Hemric‘s future is cloudy. Richard Childress Racing is replacing him in its No. 8 Chevrolet with Tyler Reddick next season and Hemric hasn’t announced what he’ll do next year.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Daniel Suarez has not announced his plans for next season. The 2016 Xfinity champion will end his third Cup season on Sunday.
JTG Daugherty Racing and Roush Fenway Racing will be swapping drivers after the Miami race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. go from driving Roush’s No. 17 Ford to JTG Daugherty to replace Chris Buescher. Meanwhile, Buescher will return to Roush after five years away to drive the No. 17.
All three national series will compete on a new tire set-up compared to what was used at this track last year.
This is the same combination of left and right-side tires each series ran at Chicagoland and those in the Cup and Xfinity Series ran at Darlington this season.
This left and right-side tire features construction updates to align with what is run at other speedways, while this right-side tire takes teams from a multi-zone tread tire to a single zone tire and will increase grip.
“The compounds we will be running provide plenty of grip, but also offer the endurance needed on Homestead’s track surface,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing, in a press release. “These high wear tracks put on some of our best races, and the past several years at Homestead have proven that. Tire fall-off creates more ‘comers’ and ‘goers’ over the course of a long run, which means more passing and tire management being an important element of the race.”
TWO OTHER CHAMPIONSHIPS AT STAKE
The Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series also will crown their champions this weekend.
Two past champions and two drivers who won their first Gander Outdoors Truck Series races this year are primed to battle for the championship Friday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway (8 p.m. ET on FS1).
There are no upstart phenoms in this group of drivers, where the average age is 33. The veterans came out on top. But who will be the last one standing?
Here’s a breakdown of each driver.
Matt Crafton (No. 88 Ford for ThorSport Racing)
Career Playoff wins: Two
Miami Record: Three top fives in 18 starts, including his win in 2014 to claim his second championship.
Championship-Caliber Moment(s): Crafton did everything he needed to short of winning a race this season to make the title race. He enters Miami with three top 10s in the playoffs and only one DNF through 22 races.
Outlook: It’s entirely possible Crafton could claim his third Truck Series title this weekend without having won a single race this season. In fact, he hasn’t won since the 2017 race at Eldora. The last time a national series driver won a title without a win was Austin Dillon with his Xfinity championship in 2013. Crafton will try to do it as the only Ford driver going against three Chevrolets.
“Just beat the other three guys,” Crafton said Friday night. “At the end of the day, just go out there and just make your truck the best you can in practice and Homestead’s always such an interesting one just because you have so much tire wear, you get so much tire falloff and you get one set of tires in practice. You have one shot to get the balance of your truck good. … But at the end of the day we know what trucks we’ll be racing for a championship.”
Brett Moffitt (No. 24 Chevrolet for GMS Racing)
Wins: Four (Iowa, Chicago, Bristol, Canada)
Career Playoff Wins: Four (two this season)
Miami Record: Will make his second Truck start at the track following his win there last year to claim the title. Finished 31st and 36th in his two Cup Series starts.
Championship-Caliber Moment(s): Led the final 27 laps at Bristol and survived three restarts in that span to fend off Chandler Smith and Chastain for the win.
Outlook: Could become the second Truck Series driver to claim back-to-back titles, following Crafton’s 2013-14 reign. Regardless of the outcome Friday, Moffitt won’t have to worry about his career prospects. After proving GMS Racing’s decision to go with him over Johnny Sauter was the right one, he’ll be back in the No. 24 next season.
“I think it’s a different type of pressure,” Moffitt said Friday. “Last year (was) ‘What if I don’t get the opportunity again?’ type of pressure. Where this year is I need to perform for those who gave me this opportunity and that’s the Gallagher family and everyone at GMS. They’re working as hard as they possibly can to give me fast Silverados week-in and week-out. Anything short of winning a championship will be a disappointment for all of us. We feel like we have the best opportunity to do it. We feel like we have the best people to do it.”
Ross Chastain (No. 45 Chevrolet for Niece Motorsports)
Wins: Three (Kansas, Gateway, Pocono)
Career Playoff Wins: None
Miami Record: Best finish in five Truck Series starts is eighth in 2013 while driving for Brad Keselowski Racing. Finished 16th last year with Niece Motorsports.
“Bet ya’ll didn’t expect to see me here … A dream come true,” Chastain said after he finished ninth in Phoenix. “My team owner Al (Niece) just said it best, he said ‘Why stop now?'”
Stewart Friesen (No. 52 Chevrolet for Halmar Racing)
Wins: Two (Eldora, Phoenix)
Career Playoff Wins: One
Miami Record: Three starts with finishes of seventh and fourth the last two years.
Championship-Caliber Moment(s): After a penalty at the start of the Phoenix race for beating the pole-sitter to the start-finish line, Friesen bounced back and held off Brandon Jones to claim his first win on asphalt and advance to the Championship 4.
Outlook: Friesen and Halmar Racing didn’t compete in NASCAR until 2016. They’ve won their first two races this season and are one race away from a championship. Like Brett Moffitt last year, we can’t help but speculate it’s because of the mustache.
“We’ve got our favorite truck we’re running next week that we’ve gotten a lot of time under our belt with,” Friesen said following his win. “It’s going to be a tough race, obviously. It gets tough to pass at Homestead. The tire falloff is huge. It falls off lap-to-lap. You can go out and start a run, you’re wide open for a lap. Then it backs up, backs up, backs up. Then you get right up on the boards. You got to work that air bubble and there’s a lot of stuff you can manipulate at Homestead to help yourself out that I’ve learned the last (three races there). It’s a gritty race track paved with the aggregate of the area. It looks like you’re racing on sea shells, that’s what it is. That’s what the pavement plants have there. It’s cool and it’s exciting. ”
Jeff Dennison, senior director of sales and marketing for Front Row Motorsports, said then Tifft had a two-year agreement with the team and it planned to honor that.
Statement from Matt Tifft:
“I’ve made the decision to focus on my health and there is no rush or timetable to get back behind the wheel. Because of that, I can’t commit to racing full-time in 2020. I can’t say when I’ll be ready to race again, but I believe I will come back. I love this sport, the people, and I would like to be a part of it next year in some capacity.
“I want to thank Bob Jenkins, Jerry Freeze and the entire Front Row Motorsports organization for allowing me to live my dream of racing in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. They are great people and it’s been awesome to race there. I look forward to what’s next in racing when the time is right.”
Statement from Bob Jenkins, Owner, Front Row Motorsports:
“Matt has always shown us a lot of determination and courage. He’s a fighter and I believe, like him, that he’ll return to driving. For now, we support Matt and his need to focus on his health and his family. Racing will be there when it’s time. We want to thank Matt and his family for being a part of Front Row Motorsports and helping us continue to grow.”
Across a bevy of numerical criteria, there isn’t much separation among the drivers in the championship round of the 2019 playoffs.
The staff at Racing Insights, which provides in-depth statistical analysis of NASCAR for NBC Sports and other media outlets, ranked the drivers 1-4 in 16 categories and listed Harvick as its favorite by the numbers, just ahead of Truex, Busch and Hamlin.
Driver Age Starts Poles Wins Top 5 Top 10 Laps led Avg. finish
Kyle Busch 34 533 31 55 199 295 17,311 13.65
Denny Hamlin 38 505 33 37 161 258 10,143 13.65
Kevin Harvick 43 681 31 49 205 361 13,993 13.01
Martin Truex Jr. 39 512 19 26 101 204 8,803 15.76
HEAD TO HEAD IN 2019:
Truex was the highest finisher of the four drivers in 12 of the past 35 races (including four of the past 10 races). Busch was the highest finisher 10 times (none in the past 11), Hamlin seven times (four of the past six) and Harvick six (once in the past seven).
Harvick (2014, ’15, ’17, ’18, ’19) and Busch (’15-19) each have reached the final round at Miami in five of the six years since this structure began in 2014. This is the fourth appearance for Truex (’15, ’17, ’18, ’19) and second for Hamlin (’14, ’19).
BEST CAREER ON 1.5-MILE TRACKS:
Harvick has the most victories (16) and pole positions (13) and best average finish (12.28), beating out Busch (13 wins, nine poles, 13.47), Truex (12 wins, seven poles, 13.39) and Hamlin (nine wins, six poles, 14.09)
BEST ON 1.5-MILE TRACKS IN 2019:
Truex and Hamlin have two wins apiece, but Truex gets the nod on average finish (8.3 to Hamlin’s 11.9). Harvick (one win) is second in average finish (8.7) ahead of Busch (10.5), the only contender without a win on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
BEST AT MIAMI:
Hamlin has two wins while the other three also have one apiece. Harvick easily leads in average finish (6.56) with 16 top 10s and 10 top fives in 18 starts ahead of Hamlin (10.57 average finish and nine top 10s in 14 starts), Truex (10.79 average finish and nine top 10s in 14 starts) and Busch (17.43 average finish and seven top 10s in 14 starts).
BEST IN 2019 PLAYOFFS:
Based on wins, Truex has been tops by winning three of the first nine races for a 6.22 average finish that puts him ahead of Hamlin (two wins, 8.78 average finish) and Harvick (one win, 6.11 average finish). Busch is winless with a 12.11 average finish.
BEST IN 2019 SEASON:
Truex has the most wins (seven) over Hamlin (six). Busch (four wins) has the most top 10s (26) and best average finish (9.17), putting him ahead of Harvick, who also has four wins but does have the most poles (six, twice as many as Hamlin).
BEST DRIVER/CREW CHIEF PAIRING:
The combinations of Kyle Busch-Adam Stevens and Kevin Harvick-Rodney Childers each have 26 victories, but Busch and Stevens have a better winning percentage (16 percent in 163 starts vs. 13.3 percent for Harvick-Childers in 211 starts). Martin Truex Jr. and Cole Pearn have 24 wins in 178 starts (13.5 percent) while Chris Gabehart and Denny Hamlin have won six of their 36 starts together (35 this season; one in 2017).
FASTEST PIT CREW:
Kyle Busch’s No. 18 ranked first during the season (14.083 seconds per four-tire stop) and playoffs (13.718). Harvick had the sixth-fastest crew this season (14.39) and 10th in the playoffs (14.357), Truex’s was eighth in the season (14.606) and seventh in the playoffs (14.145), and Hamlin’s was 10th in the season (14.687) and ninth in the playoffs (14.336).
FEWEST MISTAKES BY PIT CREW:
Limiting errors to speeding, tire and safety violations and driving through too many stalls (and omitting penalties involving damaged cars), Harvick’s team had the least number of penalties for errors with five, followed by Truex (six), Busch (seven) and Hamlin (nine).