Who’s Hot and Who’s Not heading to New Hampshire

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One race down, nine to go to crown a champion. That’s where the NASCAR Cup playoffs stand heading into this weekend’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Following the playoff opener at Chicagoland Speedway, four drivers below the cutoff line – Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman – have races at New Hampshire and Dover to bounce back.

Kevin Harvick is the defending race winner. Matt Kenseth has won three of the last eight races at the 1.058-mile flat track. Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner there, including this past July.

Courtesy of Racing Insights, here’s this week’s Who’s Hot and Who’s Not:

Cup – Who Is Hot

No. 78 Martin Truex Jr. (Hot)

  • Won at Chicago after a speeding penalty and loose lugs
  • Finished in the top 10 a series-high 18 times
  • Won a series-high 18 stages
  • 58 Playoff Points includes 15 points for clinching the regular season
  • Five wins this season, most of all drivers and personal best
  • Led a series-high 1,723 laps in 2017, led the most laps in eight races
  • Started top three and led over 100 laps in the last three New Hampshire races
  • Won the pole finished third at New Hampshire in July

No. 18 Kyle Busch (Hot)

  • Finished 15th at Chicago, broke a streak of six straight top 10 finishes
  • Sat on the pole at Chicago by nearly three tenths of a second
  • Loose wheel and speeding penalty then lack of cautions caused his 15th-place finish at Chicago
  • Two wins this season (Pocono and Bristol)
  • Two NH wins, last was summer of 2015
  • Finished 12th at NH in July after leading 95 laps, speeding penalty
  • Finished top 10 in seven of the last nine NH races

No. 11 Denny Hamlin (Hot, Good at NH)

  • Finished fourth at Chicago, fourth straight top-five finish
  • Top-five finishes in 10 of the last 13 races including two wins
  • Won at NH in July, third NH win (won in a backup car due to a practice crash)
  • Finished top two in nearly a third of his NH starts (7 of 23 or 30 percent)

No. 4 Kevin Harvick (Hot, good at NH)

  • Finished third at Chicago, first top-five finish in the last six races, led 59 laps, his most since Texas in April
  • Four fewer top fives and top 10s this year compared to last year
  • Two NH wins, including this race last year, led only eight laps
  • Top five finishes in five of the last six NH races including fifth in July

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson (All about the wins)

  • 8th at Richmond and Chicago, only the second time this season he has scored back-to-back top 10 finishes
  • Three top-five finishes this season, all wins
  • Three time NH winner but last was 2010
  • Has only led seven laps in the last 12 NH races
  • Finished 10th at NH in July after starting second

No. 20 Matt Kenseth (sneaky Hot)

  • Finished 9th at Chicago, seven top-10 finishes in the last nine races, all but Michigan, flat tire in OT while running third and an ambulance problem at Richmond
  • Three NH wins, all in the last eight races
  • Finished top six with two wins in the last five races including fourth in July

No. 2 Brad Keselowski (Warm, Good at NH)

  • Finished sixth at Chicago, first top 10 in the last six races
  • One NH win, summer 2014
  • Finished top 15 in the last 12 races at NH including ninth in July

No. 42 Kyle Larson (Hot in 2017, Good at NH)

  • Finished fifth at Chicago, never really a factor for the win
  • Four wins in 2017, had one entering this season
  • Finished second in seven races this year
  • Best finish at NH in seven races is runner-up twice, including July

No. 31 Ryan Newman (Pretty good lately, not so much at NH lately)

  • 23rd at Chicago, just did not run well, broke a four race top-10 streak
  • Three NH wins, last coming in 2011
  • Has led 722 laps at NH, but only two in the last 11 races
  • Finished 27th at NH in July
  • Seven top-five finishes at NH but only one in the last 12 races

No. 1 Jamie McMurray (Decent)

  • 10th at Chicago, sixth straight top-15 finish
  • 14 top-10 finishes this season, five more than this point last year
  • Best NH finish is third in 2010
  • Finished 17th at NH in July, only three top-10 finishes in the last 13 races at NH

Cup – Who is Not:

No. 21 Ryan Blaney (Not Lately)

  • Finished 11th at Chicago, third straight finish outside the top 10
  • Last top-five finish was his win at Pocono in June
  • Nine top-10 finishes this season but none have come in back-to-back races
  • Four NH starts, best finish of 11th in the summer of 2016, finished 19th in July

No. 41 Kurt Busch (Not, Mixed at NH)

  • Finished 19th at Chicago, broke a streak of three straight top five finishes
  • Speeding penalty at Chicago
  • Three-time NH winner, last time was 2008
  • Finished eighth at NH in July, only his third top-10 finish there in the last 12 races

No. 3 Austin Dillon (Has a win but is NOT HOT)

  • Finished 16th at Chicago, speeding penalty
  • Won on fuel mileage at Charlotte
  • Only four top-10 finishes this season, had 10 at this point last year
  • Only top-10 finish in seven NH races was eighth in summer of 2015
  • Finished 15th at NH in July

No. 24 Chase Elliott (Starting to turn things back around)

No. 5 Kasey Kahne (Not, Not, Not)

  • Finished 21st at Chicago, only one top-10 finish in the last 17 races, win at Indy
  • Six DNFs accident this season
  • Won at Indianapolis ending a 102-race winless streak, took a super lucky timed caution and turned it into a win
  • One NH win, summer 2012 (last win by HMS there)
  • Finished 28th at NH in July, it was his seventh finish outside the top 10 in the last nine NH races

No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (Has two wins this season)

  • 25th at Chicago , last top 10 was his win at Daytona in July
  • Zero wins in first 157 starts, two wins in last 18 starts
  • Two top-10 finishes in nine NH starts, best of ninth in 2014
  • Finished 14th at NH in July

Others:

No. 14 Clint Bowyer (Disappointing 2017)

  • Finished 13th at Chicago
  • Was 88 points out of a Playoff spot
  • Finished runner up three times in 2017
  • 10 top 10s in 2017, had only three in all of 2016
  • Two-time winner at NH, finished seventh in July

No. 22 Joey Logano (Disappointing season)

  • Seventh at Chicago, finished top 10 in back-to-back races for the first time since April
  • 10 finishes outside the top 20 in the last 18 races
  • Won at Richmond but was encumbered after starting in the rear due to a transmission change
  • First time he missed the playoffs with Team Penske
  • Two-time NH winner
  • Finished 37th in July after a flat tire and suspension issues

No. 77 Erik Jones (Hot, ?? at NH)

  • Finished 33rd at Chicago, multiple issues, broke a streak of six straight top 10 finishes
  • Finished 39th at NH in July, accident after 40 laps, it was his first Cup start there

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (Not)

  • 17th at Chicago, last top 10 was Sonoma in June (sixth)
  • Only two top-10s in the last 15 races
  • Best NH finish is third in 2004
  • Finished 18th at NH in July, it was his first start there since 2015

Alex Bowman to miss Talladega due to concussion-like symptoms

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Alex Bowman will miss Sunday’s Cup race at Talladega Superspeedway after experiencing concussion-like symptoms following his accident last weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, Hendrick Motorsports stated Thursday afternoon.

Bowman is the second Cup driver to miss a race because of concussion-like symptoms after a crash. Kurt Busch has not returned to racing since he crashed July 23 at Pocono. Busch said this week that he remains “hopeful” he can return this season. Six races remain in the season, including Sunday’s race at Talladega.

Noah Gragson will fill in for Bowman.

Hendrick Motorsports stated that Bowman, who is last in the playoff standings, was evaluated by physicians Thursday in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Provided Bowman returns, he likely will need to win the Oct. 9 race at the Charlotte Roval to avoid playoff elimination.

Bowman brought out the caution on Lap 98 of the 334-lap race at Texas when a tire blew and backed into the wall in Turn 4. The car then hit the SAFER barrier with the right side. Bowman continued, finishing the race 29th, five laps behind winner Tyler Reddick.

Drivers have stated that rear impacts have felt worse than they looked with the new car.

From the get-go, everybody could see that this car was way too stiff,” Kevin Harvick said earlier this summer. “When I crashed it (at Auto Club Speedway in practice), I thought the car was destroyed and it barely backed the bumper off. It just felt like somebody hit you with a hammer.”

Christopher Bell said in June that he had a headache after he backed into the wall in the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway in May.

Denny Hamlin said earlier this month he feels better about what NASCAR is looking to do with the car after conversations with series officials.

“I certainly feel that they’re working to help us with the hits on the chassis,” Hamlin aid. “All that stuff does take time. They can’t just knee-jerk reaction and start cutting bars out of the chassis, that’s very irresponsible.

“I think they’re doing things methodically to make sure that the next revision of car that comes out is one that is improved in the areas that we need improving on, but that does take time through design and testing.”

Gragson was to have driven the No. 62 car for Beard Motorsports in Sunday’s Cup race. Justin Allgaier will drive the car with Gragson moving to the No. 48 car.

 

Dr. Diandra: How much does Talladega shake up the playoffs?

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Talladega Superspeedway is known for shaking up the playoffs. But how well deserved is that reputation?

Playoff drivers usually view the first race in the second round of the playoffs as the best chance to earn points, earn stage points and maybe even a win given that Talladega is the second race. Now that Texas is in the rear-view mirror, let’s turn our data analysis tools to Talladega.

The shake-up index

Determining how much one race shuffles the playoffs standings requires a simple metric that is applicable to all the years NASCAR has had stages and playoffs. In a rare point of consistency, Talladega has remained the 31st race of the season since 2017, when stage racing started.

After trying a couple different approaches, I finally settled on playoff rankings. These rankings are a zero-sum game. For each driver who moves up a position, another driver must move down.

The first graph is playoff ranking as a function of race for the second playoff segment of 2021. It’s a bit of a mess, but stay with me.

A scatter graph of rank changes to help determine how much shaking-up Talladega actually does

Playoff rank runs along the left side of the graph. The highest ranked driver is at the top and the 12th ranked at the bottom.

The leftmost set of dots shows the rankings coming out of Bristol, after eliminating the lowest four drivers and re-seeding the rest. The second column of dots show the rankings after Las Vegas, which was the first race in the second round in 2021.

Each driver is represented in a different color, with lines connecting his rankings. For example, the dark purple lines show Denny Hamlin rising from third to first over these three races. The light blue lines at the bottom show Alex Bowman plummeting from seventh to 12th.

The messier the lines between two races, the more the playoffs were shaken up. Because it’s hard to quantify “messiness,” I counted each time one driver’s line crossed another driver’s line.

Each crossing indicates two drivers changed places in the rankings. The number of intersections between Bristol and Las Vegas, for example, tells you how much Las Vegas shook up the standings.

Three intersecting lines count as three shake-ups because there are three pairs of drivers crossing.

In 2021, Las Vegas had nine intersections, Talladega 13 and the Roval only five. This seems consistent with our hypothesis that Talladega is the biggest shaker-upper in the second round.

Talladega Timeline

In addition to being only one point, the 2021 Talladega contest poses another problem. Bubba Wallace won the rain-shortened race, which went 311 miles instead of the scheduled 500 miles.

That raises the possibility that 2021 might not be the most representative year for Talladega races. I therefore repeated the analysis going back to 2017. Since we didn’t have stage racing — and thus stage points — before 2017, it doesn’t make sense to compare previous years.

The table below shows the shake-up index from 2017-2021. Note that the first and third races changed from year to year.

A table summarizing the shake-up index for Talladega and other races in the second playoff round from 2017-2021

This five years of data show that Talladega wasn’t always the race that most shook-up this round of playoffs. From 2017-19, Dover and Charlotte held that honor. That’s surprising, especially in 2017. That’s the year 26 of 40 cars failed to finish the Talladega race and NASCAR parked Jimmie Johnson and Matt DiBenedetto.

In 2020, the three races had just about equal shake-up indices.

The Roval has been the third playoff race for only two years. It was equally chaotic with Talladega in terms of affecting the standings in 2020, but less so in 2021. Kansas beat the Roval for switching up the playoff standings twice.

 A caveat for the first race

If you’re surprised to see a larger shake-up for the first race in the second round of the playoffs, you’re not alone.

The 2021 fall Las Vegas race was remarkably uneventful. There were only two DNFs, both non-playoff cars. And one single-car accident that, again, didn’t involve a playoff car. Yet it had a shake-up index of nine.

It turns out that this is a side-effect of the re-seeding protocol.

The graph below shows the same time period as the rankings graph, but reports total points for the top-12 drivers.

A scatter plot showing how points changed for the top-12 playoff drivers in 2021 in the second round of the playoffs

Immediately after re-seeding, the drivers are separated by 57 points from first to 12th. If you omit Kyle Larson’s 30-point lead, the bottom 11 drivers are separated by only 27 points.

Since a driver can earn a maximum of 60 points in a single race, the first race in a round has a lot more impact in changing the standings. In effect, the first race decompresses the re-seeding compression.

After Las Vegas, the 12 playoff drivers were separated by 78 points. After Talladega, the margin grew to 98 points.

The larger numbers for the first races in any round are more due to the re-seeding-induced points compression than to the nature of the track.

Applied to 2022

Drivers don’t have to win at Talladega. They just have to finish ahead of the other playoff drivers. In fact, if a given driver can’t win, the next best case for him is if none of the other playoff drivers win, either.

The largest drop in positions a driver has seen from Talladega is five — and that’s from the rain-shortened 2021 race. On the other hand, drivers have also seen as much as an eight-position gain in the standings following Talladega. That gain was after the 2017 race where more than half the field failed to finish, but at least one driver has come out of the fall Talladega race each of the last four years up at least three positions.

As far as the stats for this year’s second round playoffs so far: Last week’s Texas race had a shake-up index of 14. That’s higher than all but the first year of the stage-racing playoff era.

And the William Byron penalty (which Hendrick Motorsports is contesting) has a shake-up index of seven.

NASCAR weekend schedule for Talladega Superspeedway

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The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll into Talladega Superspeedway, a center of uncertainty, for the second race in the Round of 12 this weekend.

Sunday’s race (2 p.m. ET, NBC) could place the first driver in the Round of 8. Any playoff driver who wins the race automatically advances to the next round.

Through the playoffs to date, playoff drivers are batting zero in the race-win category. Non-playoff drivers — Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones — have scored wins in the first four playoff races.

Joey Logano leads the playoff points entering the race. Ross Chastain, who won at Talladega earlier this year, is second.

The four drivers below the cutline are Austin Cindric, William Byron, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman. Byron was above the line earlier this week but was penalized 25 points for spinning Denny Hamlin under caution last Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. That move lifted Chase Briscoe above the cutline.

Playoff races also are scheduled for the Xfinity Series (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, USA Network) and the Camping World Truck Series (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., FS1) at Talladega.

Here’s a look at the Talladega weekend schedule:

Talladega Superspeedway (Cup, Xfinity and Truck)

Weekend weather

Friday: Sunny. High of 78.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 74.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High of 75.

Friday, Sept. 30

(All times Eastern)

Garage open

  • 9 a.m. – 6 p.m. — Truck Series
  • 10:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. — Xfinity Series
  • 2 – 7 p.m. — Cup Series

Track activity

  • 3:30 – 5 p.m. — Truck Series qualifying
  • 5:30 – 7 p.m. — Xfinity Series qualifying (USA Network)

Saturday, Oct. 1

Garage open

  • 8:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. — Cup Series
  • 9:30 a.m. — Truck Series
  • 1 p.m. — Xfinity Series

Track activity

  • 10:30 a.m. – Noon — Cup Series qualifying (NBC Sports app, Motor Racing Network, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio)
  • 12:30 p.m. — Truck Series race (94 laps, 250 miles; FS1, Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)
  • 4 p.m. — Xfinity Series race (113 laps, 300 miles; USA Network, Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Sunday, Oct. 2

Garage open

  • 11 a.m. — Cup Series

Track activity

  • 2 p.m. — Cup Series race (188 laps, 500 miles; NBC, Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Short-track ace Sam Ard shares Xfinity record with Noah Gragson

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Former two-time Xfinity Series champion Sam Ard’s name returned to the forefront in the past week as Noah Gragson tied Ard’s series record for consecutive victories at four.

Although Ard has been nominated for the NASCAR Hall of Fame, his exploits generally aren’t well-known among many who follow the modern sport of stock car racing. He was on the Hall voting list for the 2023 class but was not elected.

In the 1970s and ’80s, Ard was a short-track master in the vein of stars like Jack Ingram, Harry Gant and Butch Lindley, drivers who could show up at virtually any half-mile track across the country and take home the trophy.

He won the NASCAR Late Model (now the Xfinity Series) championship in 1983 and 1984, scoring 18 wins across those two seasons. He put together four victories in a row late in the 1983 season, winning at South Boston, Virginia; Martinsville, Virginia; Rougemont, North Carolina and Charlotte.

Ard was so dominant in 1984 that he had wrapped up the seasonal championship with two races remaining. In 28 series starts that year, he had 24 top-five finishes and 26 top-10 runs. He won eight times.

In the next-to-last race of the 1984 season, at North Carolina Speedway in Rockingham, Ard suffered critical head injuries when his car slid in fluid from another vehicle and hit the track’s outside wall.

That crash effectively ended Ard’s career and impacted the rest of his life. Ard often talked of learning to walk again as part of his recovery. He said he would use a walker in a pile of sawdust in his backyard so that the landing would be softer when he fell.

Ard eventually was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. In 2006, responding to Ard’s financial problems, drivers Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr., among others, launched a drive to raise funds for his family.

Ard, a native of Scranton, S.C., died in April 2017. He was 78.