Ryan: A case for Brad Keselowski’s plate greatness – and the reasons some still reject it

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DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – In becoming the most decorated Millennial in NASCAR history, it never seems easy for Brad Keselowski – even just garnering credit when he makes it seem remarkably easy on track.

That’s been the recurring theme lately for the Team Penske star in the restrictor-plate bedlam of Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. Keselowski’s victory in Saturday’s Coke Zero 400 was his second straight on the tracks that choke down horsepower and create massive packs – requiring deft navigation of its capricious draft at 200 mph – and his improvement curve seems to be accelerating.

He led a race-high 115 of 161 laps at Daytona, bettering his previous plate track high of 46 laps led in May at Talladega.

In both races, he took the lead with 16 laps to go and coolly dictated the rhythm and tone on mammoth ovals whose sound and fury allegedly can’t be harnessed.

Of course, he has exhibited a flair for the dramatic, too. In the fifth start of his Cup career – and his first in a part-time, underfunded car that was blessed with a Hendrick Motorsports engine but little in the way of manpower – Keselowski outdueled a host of veterans by gamely holding the bottom lane and launching Carl Edwards into the catchfence at Talladega. The first lap he led in his Sprint Cup career was the last that day on the 2.66-mile oval.

His next two wins at Talladega – a jaw-dropping maneuver that snookered Kyle Busch in 2012 and a last-lap pass of Ryan Newman during a must-win playoff race to advance in 2014 – were just as compelling and helped bolster an inescapable conclusion.

Keselowski currently might be the world’s best plate racer, and one number bears it out nicely.

Since 2009, he has more plate victories (five) than any driver in NASCAR’s premier series.

Ahh, but it’s not so simple for some.

Just peruse the musings from the angst-ridden peanut gallery of NASCAR social media since Saturday night.

Stating the abundantly obvious – that having the most wins in the past seven years at Daytona and Talladega might merit some measure of praise – was cast as hyperbolic trolling of Keselowski’s mastery.

How can you label someone the best solely based on the number of times they finished first?

The reaction isn’t entirely unpredictable given that Keselowski has been a target of fans’ boos for several years.

It could be construed as a byproduct of the 2012 Sprint Cup champion’s hard-nosed and indefatigable will. Respect among fans and peers always has seemed elusive for the Rochester Hills, Mich., native.

While establishing himself as a rising star, he butted heads with Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. It didn’t subside much after he won the 2012 championship, though the clashes became less frequent and vocal. Keselowski was elected to the Sprint Cup Drivers Council, but he won’t win popularity contests in many quarters of the industry.

That doesn’t explain all of why Kez has been denied his due for plate greatness, though.

Here are some reasons why:

–He’s threatening the supremacy of a 13-time most popular driver: In 2015, Dale Earnhardt Jr., who leads active drivers with 10 restrictor-plate wins, posted two wins, a second and a third between Daytona and Talladega. But he is having arguably the worst plate season of his career. After crashing in the Daytona 500 and at Talladega, Earnhardt finished a nondescript 21st Saturday while battling the same handling problems plaguing the No. 88 Chevrolet in 2016 plate races.

Keselowski’s rise hasn’t come at Earnhardt’s expense, but there are mitigating factors that make it less palatable for Junior Nation to accept. Earnhardt gave Keselowski his big break by putting him in a JRM Xfinity ride a decade ago. Since then, he’s won a Cup championship, which Earnhardt still doesn’t have.

Plate greatness has been a constant through the ups and downs of Earnhardt’s career. If Keselowski were perceived as snatching it, Earnhardt’s fervent following wouldn’t take kindly.

–His success has come in one of the oddest eras of plate racing: None of Keselowski’s victories came during the 2011 season that featured the wretched rise (and fall) of tandem drafting, but the taint still lingered.

Plate racing went through a bizarre spell during that period, and the interruption in continuity made an impact on how the racing was celebrated.

Keselowski’s winning stretch would be more appreciated if it had occurred in the early to mid-2000s, when the rules for plate racing were in a sweet spot that engendered decent racing while emphasizing driver talent (see: Earnhardt’s winning run at Talladega in 2001-04).

–He has taken advantage of depleted fields: The most specious of narratives, driven mostly by the 22-car wreck Saturday at Daytona – while conveniently omitting that it didn’t eliminate every legitimate contender. Keselowski still had to make a nifty move to take the lead from Busch (ranked first in driver rating at Daytona among active Cup drivers) as well as beat 2016 Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin, restrictor-plate sleeper Kurt Busch and others.

There also was a 21-car wreck in May at Talladega, a 10-car wreck in 2014, two nine-car wrecks in 2012 and a 14-car and 10-car wreck in 2009.

Yes, massive pileups have happened in all of Keselowski’s victories. Generally, they occur in the middle of the pack, wiping out mostly cars that weren’t a serious threat to start.

–He initially struggled at Daytona: Going strictly by the numbers (which always is a dangerous trap in analyzing plate results), Keselowski’s results have lagged at the World Center of Racing. The 2.5-mile track is his worst in Sprint Cup based on average finish (20.7).

But a closer examination shows he already has been headed in the right direction. He unquestionably was mediocre at the 2016 Daytona 500 (20th), prompting his team to construct a much sleeker No. 2 Ford for this past weekend, but aside from that, he has been strong the past three seasons.

He was running well last July before a mid-race wreck, he was contending in the top five of the 2015 Daytona 500 before a late engine failure, and he finished third in the 2014 Daytona 500 – delivering the winning push to Earnhardt in the two-lap dash to the finish.

Corey LaJoie learning in his week with Chase Elliott’s team


Spending this week with Hendrick Motorsports has proved eye-opening for Corey LaJoie.

He will pilot Chase Elliott’s No. 9 car today at World Wide Technology Raceway after NASCAR suspended Elliott one race for wrecking Denny Hamlin during last week’s Coca-Cola 600. This gives LaJoie the chance to drive in the best equipment of his career.

MORE: Corey LaJoie not giving up on his dream 

MORE: Details for Sunday’s Cup race

Working with Elliott’s team also has given LaJoie an inside look as to what makes Hendrick Motorsports so successful.

“I thought that I knew what we didn’t have at Spire Motorsports, but I had no idea,” said LaJoie, who starts 30th after tagging the wall during his qualifying lap. “There’s tools that those guys have, intellectual properties specific to Hendrick Motorsports, that even some of the other teams don’t have.

“But the biggest thing that I noticed was just the people and the attitude of the pursuit of perfection. All the key partner teams across all the (manufacturers) all have the same data, but (Hendrick Motorsports has) an unbelievable way of delegating, taking, compacting and making it just digestible – whether it’s for a driver, an engineer, a crew chief.

“I think the fact that they have four incredibly strong teams individually raises the tide for those guys because when you’re sitting in the simulator and William Byron ran a 33.20 (seconds for a lap) … if you’re running a 33.35 with the same setup, you know you have a tenth-and-a-half under your butt and you have to go find it. And then when I go run a 33.20, William next time is going to want to run a 33.19.

“There’s always a consistently raised watermark on the driver’s end. There’s always a consistently raised watermark on the crew chiefs in trying to build the best setups, and the engineers trying to find the best strategies.

“The inner-team competition is one of the biggest things, and I think there are several teams that have that … the healthy ones are certainly evident. But it’s just the overall structure. We have a Hawkeye (camera-based inspection stations used by NASCAR at the track) … all the things that do the same stuff that Hendrick Motorsports has, but the depth of people, collective focus of the goal and the mission is noticeable and evident. It’s a different world.”

It would be easy for LaJoie to be overwhelmed in this situation. His career has been marked with underfunded rides and trying to make the most of his equipment. He’s having his best season in Cup this year. LaJoie ranks 19th in points heading into today’s race.

LaJoie acknowledges the opportunity he has, but he also can’t let it alter his focus.

“It’s been a wild week,” he said. “I can get all sentimental … (about) my dad subbing in for Ricky Craven in 1998 (for Hendrick Motorsports) and all that sort of stuff. But at the end of the day, when I sit in that thing, I don’t know that NAPA is on it, or the No. 9 is on it.

“I’m going to drive it like I have been driving the No. 7 Chevy and putting that thing 19th in points. It’s been a super fun, successful year so far, and we have a lot of work left to do and things to accomplish over there.”

When he returns to his Spire Motorsports ride after today’s race, LaJoie admits this weekend’s experience with Elliott’s team will help him with his own team.

“How I prepare, how I’m going to engage with my team at Spire Motorsports going forward is going to change,” LaJoie said. “I think I’m going to be able to come in there and just apply and share some of the things I’ve learned over the course of the week with (crew chief Ryan) Sparks and the No. 77 team, as well, and I think we’re all going to be stronger for it.”

Dr. Diandra: Is 2023 the season for a Ricky Stenhouse Jr. redemption?


Coming into 2022, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had two career Cup Series wins in 364 starts. But both wins — and his career-high 13th-place season finish — happened back in 2017.

Stenhouse was unceremoniously dropped by Roush Fenway Racing in 2020 and landed with JTG Daugherty Racing. He made the news every now and then at a superspeedway but could be counted upon to head up season-ending lists of drivers involved in the most accidents. In the years Stenhouse hasn’t been at the top of the list, he’s been near the top.

DNFs and accidents have plagued Stenhouse throughout his NASCAR career. Jack Roush went so far as to park the Mississippi native in his early days in the Xfinity Series because he tore up so much equipment.

Stenhouse redeemed himself, going on to win two Xfinity championships.

From the way his 2023 season has started, it looks as though Stenhouse might be on a similar mission of redemption this year in the Cup Series.

Finishing races

Stenhouse started the 2023 season in the best possible way – winning the Daytona 500. But drivers from less-funded teams who win early superspeedway races usually settle to the bottom of the rankings by now.

Stenhouse hasn’t. He ranks 13th heading into Sunday’s race at World Wide Technology Raceway.

Standings aren’t as good a ruler this year as they usually are because of drivers missing races and teams incurring penalties. But Stenhouse’s statistics back up his ranking.

Stenhouse has finished every race this year on track, as opposed to in the garage or on the hook. Only Ryan Blaney and Corey LaJoie have achieved the same distinction.

In 11 of those 14 races, Stenhouse finished on the lead lap. That’s the same number of lead-lap finishes as William Byron. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are tied for most races finished on the lead lap with 13 each.

This time last year, Stenhouse had already racked up seven of the series-leading 18 caution-causing incidents he would be involved in for the season. Runner-up Chase Elliott had 15 incidents.

Going into Gateway this year, Stenhouse has been involved in only two accidents (Talladega and Charlotte) and had a tire go out at Darlington.

Approaching his career best

I compare three years in Stenhouse’s career in the table below: the 2017 season — his best to date — along with last year and the 14 races run so far this year.

A table comparing loop data stats for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. showing his path to redemption

Stenhouse’s current average finishing position of 13.5 ties with Christopher Bell for sixth best in the Cup Series. That’s 9.3 positions better than Stenhouse’s 2022 average. He’s even beating his 2017 average by 3.6 positions.

Qualifying results are down a bit from 2017 — but remember that those numbers are from the days when NASCAR allowed multiple practice sessions. Stenhouse is only two positions worse relative to 2017, but 7.6 positions better than last year when it comes to establishing his spot on the starting grid.

Stenhouse’s average running position is comparable to 2017 and 2.8 positions better than 2022. He ranks 20th among full-time Cup Series drivers in average running position. Although it’s an improvement, it’s still more than double William Byron’s series-leading 9.1 average running position this year.

More interesting is the difference between Stenhouse’s average running position his average finishing position. Some drivers run better than they finish. Stenhouse is doing the opposite.

In 2017, Stenhouse finished about 1.4 positions better than he ran. This year, he’s gaining an average of about five positions from where he runs.

One might argue this gain results from the plethora of late-race incidents this year that have removed drivers in the front of the field from contention. But Stenhouse deserves credit for putting himself in a position to benefit from those events.

Stenhouse’s green-flag speed rank is 11th among full-time Cup Series drivers. His 15.3 average, however, is 1.7 positions worse than 10th-place Kyle Busch. Still, it’s impressive that JTG Daugherty is right there in the mix with much better-funded teams. William Byron again has the best average green-flag speed rank at 7.9.

Consistently strong finishes

It’s not uncommon for a mid-pack driver to win a superspeedway race. But Stenhouse’s Daytona 500 win appears to be something more. The table below summarizes his wins and finishes for the same three years.

A table comparing finishes for 2017, 2022 and 2023 showing Ricky Stenhouse Jr's redemption attemptsThe difference between last year and this year is striking.

In 2022, Stenhouse finished in the top 20 in 12 of 36 races. He’s already matched that mark this year. He earns top-20 finishes 85.7% of the time in 2023 compared to 33.3% last year. Top-20 finishes aren’t the same as contending for a championship. But they’re a first step.

Stenhouse finished 2017 with nine top-10 races. With about 60% of the season remaining, he’s already earned five top-10 finishes this year.

What’s changed? The Next Gen car is one factor, but it didn’t make much difference for Stenhouse last year. I would point instead to Stenhouse’s reunion with Mike Kelley as his crew chief.

Kelley co-piloted both of Stenhouse’s Xfinity championships in 2011 and ’12. Although Kelley worked with Stenhouse and previous crew chief Brian Pattie since 2020, this is the first year Kelley is back up on the pit box.

Together, they’re basically halfway to matching Stenhouse’s best year.

And another step closer to redemption.

Portland Xfinity race results, driver points


Cole Custer went from fourth to first on the overtime restart when the top three cars made contact and went on to win Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Portland International Raceway. Custer is the 10th different winner in 13 races this season.

MORE: Portland Xfinity race results

MORE: Driver points after Portland Xfinity race

JR Motorsports took the next three spots: Justin Allgaier placed second, Sam Mayer was third and Josh Berry was fourth. Austin Hill completed the top five.

John Hunter Nemechek remains the points leader after 13 races. He has a 14-point lead on Hill. Nemechek leads Allgaier by 44 points.

Cole Custer wins Xfinity race at Portland in overtime


Cole Custer held off Justin Allgaier at the finish to win Saturday’s Xfinity Series race in overtime at Portland International Raceway. It is Custer’s first victory of the season.

JR Motorsports placed second, third and fourth with Allgaier, Sam Mayer and Josh Berry. Austin Hill finished fifth.

MORE: Race results, driver points

Custer went from fourth to first on the overtime restart when Parker Kligerman, who restarted third, attempted to pass Allgaier, who was leading. Sheldon Creed was on the outside of Allgaier. All three cars made contact entering Turn 1, allowing Custer to slip by. Creed finished seventh. Kligerman placed 14th.

Custer won the second stage when John Hunter Nemechek made contact with Creed’s car while racing for the lead on the final lap of the stage. The contact spun Creed and Custer inched by Nemechek at the line.

Early in the final stage, Creed gained revenge with contact that spun Nemechek, who went on to finish 10th. A few laps later, Nemechek and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Sammy Smith had issues. Smith spun Nemechek. After getting back around, Nemechek quickly caught Smith and turned into Smith’s car, damaging it.

STAGE 1 WINNER: Sheldon Creed

STAGE 2 WINNER: Cole Custer

WHO HAD A GOOD RACE: Despite the contact on the overtime restart, runner-up Justin Allgaier managed to score his fourth consecutive top-three finish. … Sam Mayer’s third-place finish is his best on a road course. … Austin Hill’s fifth-place finish gives him four consecutive top-five results.

WHO HAD A BAD RACE: Daniel Hemric finished 33rd after a fire in his car. … Riley Herbst placed 32nd after an engine issue. After opening the season with six top 10s in a row, Herbst has gone seven races in a row without a top 10.

NEXT: The series competes June 10 at Sonoma Raceway (8 p.m. ET on FS1).