With wins this season, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson are all but set to be in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
So who will be the other 11 drivers to make the 16-driver field?
CNBC’s Eric Chemi examines that issue through statistical probabilities.
He also looks at how many different winners there likely will be when the field is set after the season’s 26th race (at Richmond in September). There were 13 different winners last year and three drivers who made it on points – including Ryan Newman, who went on to finish second to Kevin Harvick for the championship.